Nevada vs Boise State Prediction and Odds (Hold Your Nose and Trust Wolfpack on the Road)
By Joe Summers
Boise State got the best of Nevada 85-70 earlier this year and aims for a season-sweep when they host the 12-15 Wolfpack tonight at 7:00 PM MST.
At 23-6, the Broncos have been the class of the Mountain West Conference and have won four straight. On the other hand, the Wolfpack have suffered through an injury-riddled season and are just 8-18 against the spread (ATS).
Will Boise State notch another double-digit victory or does value lie with Nevada to keep it close on the road?
Here are the odds via WynnBET:
Nevada vs Boise State Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Nevada +10 (-110)
- Boise State -10 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Nevada: +425
- Boise State: -575
Total:
- 138 (Over -110/Under -110)
Nevada vs Boise State Prediction and Pick
A lot can change in a month. When these teams first played, Boise State was a 2.5-point underdog. Now they're 10-point favorites and it feels like that's a wild overreaction we should take advantage of, but it's tough to trust this Wolfpack squad.
They're 264th in defensive effective field goal percentage due to one of the worst three-point defenses in the country. With the 307th-ranked offensive rebounding rate, Nevada has to make shots against a stout Broncos defense to have any chance of covering.
But Boise State certainly is not infallible. Just 3-5 ATS over their last eight and 4-7 ATS over their previous 11 as a favorite, the Broncos tend to let teams hang around and keep the margin of victory small. Their slow pace of play makes it difficult to cover large spreads and they're 3-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
The Broncos have covered just once in their last seven tries as a home favorite and the Wolfpack have been feisty on the road, covering in three of their last four. I know it's gross, but the value is with Nevada here. Especially considering that just over a month ago, the Wolfpack were favored in this matchup.
We play numbers and find the value wherever it smacks us in the face. And tonight, that means we're betting on a team that's 8-18 ATS. Give me Nevada to come through with a cover.
Pick: Nevada +10.5 (-110)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.