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Nevada vs. Dayton Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Back the Wolf Pack)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Nevada-Dayton. 

By Shelby Dermer

Nevada 's Nick Davidson dunks against UNLV March 9, 2024.
Nevada 's Nick Davidson dunks against UNLV March 9, 2024. / JASON BEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
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For most of the season, the Flyer Faithful were seeing this season as redemption for Dayton after the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to the pandemic.

The Flyers still earned an at-large March Madness bid, but stumbled down the stretch, going 5-4 to finish the regular season, culminated by a one-and-done trip to the A-10 Tournament. No. 7 Dayton now heads across the country to Salt Lake City to face No. 10 Nevada in the first round. 

Nevada also suffered an early exit in the first round of its conference tournament. The Wolf Pack did, however, end the regular season on a seven-game winning streak to secure a trip to March Madness. No. 10 Nevada is a short favorite against the Flyers.

Can they advance in the bracket? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Nevada vs. Dayton Odds, Spread and Total

Nevada vs. Dayton Betting Trends

  • Nevada is 21-11 ATS this season
  • Dayton is 15-15-1 ATS this season
  • Nevada is 15-9 ATS as a favorite this season
  • Dayton is 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The OVER is 15-17 in Nevada games this season
  • The OVER is 18-12-1 in Dayton games this season

Nevada vs. Dayton How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, March 21 
  • Game time: 4:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Delta Center
  • How to watch (TV): TBS
  • Nevada record: 26-7
  • Dayton record: 24-7

Nevada vs. Dayton Key Players to Watch

Nevada

Nick Davidson: One of three double-digit scorers in the Nevada lineup, Davidson leads the team in rebounding, grabbing 7.3 per night. Davidson ended the regular season with a pair of double-doubles in five games and is shooting 54.9% from the field on the year. 

Dayton 

Koby Brea: DaRon Holmes II, the A-10 co-player of the year, is the straw that stirs the drink for Dayton, but Brea’s perimeter shooting makes the Flyers even more dangerous. Brea is the best deep threat on one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. He is shooting 49.2% from downtown this year and averages 10.9 points per game. 

Nevada vs. Dayton Prediction and Pick 

When you’re playing Dayton, your 3-point defense has to be on point or else the slow-moving Flyers (No. 337 in adjusted tempo) can pull away in a hurry. Thankfully for the Wolfpack, they are the No. 38 team in the nation in defending 3-point shots, according to KenPom. 

Nevada is a top-40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency and has one of the most experienced lineups in the nation. Offensively, Nevada can light it up from deep, too. The Wolfpack are No. 34 in 3-point shooting and No. 56 in effective field goal percentage. 

Dayton has been hot and cold on both sides of the ball in recent play and have lost four of its last five games away from home. Nevada is on the mend after multiple players were dealing with the flu last week during the conference tournament. With time to recover and a short flight to Utah compared to Dayton’s trek, take the Wolfpack. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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