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Nevada vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 0

By Reed Wallach

New Mexico State faced off with South Carolina State in a college football game at Aggie Memorial
New Mexico State faced off with South Carolina State in a college football game at Aggie Memorial / BRIANA SANCHEZ/EL PASO TIMES via Imagn
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The college football season gets underway on Saturday with a handful of teams in action.

One game that should receive more attention is New Mexico State hosting Nevada at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Both teams enter 2022 with question marks and new coaching staffs, how should we project this game?

Here are the odds from consensus sportsbooks:

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Odds, Run Line and Total

Spread:

  • Nevada: -9.5 (-110)
  • New Mexico State: +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Nevada: -370
  • New Mexico State: +300

Total:

  • 50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Betting Trends

  • New Mexico State went 7-5 against the spread (ATS) last season
  • New Mexico State is 0-7 straight up and 1-6 ATS in season openers
  • Nevada went 1-1 as a road favorite last season
  • Both schools have first year head coaches

Need help with your college football futures bets? BetSided's Reed Wallach welcomes Ken Barkley, AKA "Locky Lockerson" of You Better You Bet to the debut episode of "The Early Reed!"

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick

Why exactly is Nevada favored by more than a touchdown against the Aggies? To be honest, why are they favored at all?

Sure, Nevada went 8-5 last year, but this team is far from the same team that had pros Carson Strong and Romeo Doubs in addition to head coach Jay Norvell. Norvell bolted for Mountain West foe Colorado State and took a ton of high-end talent on the roster with him.

Nevada has one of the lowest returning productions in the country and are now giving the keys to first time head coach Ken Wilson. Wilson will be working with a quarterback that has limited experience in Shane Illingworth and only one returning starter. Overall, just six players that started last season are back in Reno.

On the surface, New Mexico State appears to be in for another long season under first year head coach Jerry Kill, but this matchup may suit them well.

The best part of the team comes on the defensive line, where the team returns six of the top seven defensive linemen. While the unit wasn't great by any means, they do get a favorable matchup against an inexperienced Nevada offensive line.

Meanwhile, on offense expect a ton of ball control from Kill. The team is integrating in a new offense and has a quarterback competition on his hands between Diego Pavia and Gavin Frakes. I expect the running game to be ahead of the passing game with a pair of Power 5 transfers in Ahmonte Watkins (comes from TCU with Kill) and O'Maury Samuels behind three returning offensive linemen.

No, New Mexico State is not a world beater, but there are too many questions to trust a gutted Nevada team to bust out of the gates. The best known quantity is NMSU's defensive line at home, so I'll take the underdog shot as this Wolf Pack team is being over valued.

PICK: New Mexico State ML (+300)


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