Betsided

Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction and Odds (Can Wolfpack Bounce Back After 29-Point Loss?)

ByMatt De Saro|
The UNLV Rebels saw G Bryce Hamilton put up 45 points in their last game and look to keep rolling at home against Nevada.
The UNLV Rebels saw G Bryce Hamilton put up 45 points in their last game and look to keep rolling at home against Nevada. | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be welcomed back to their home court after going 1-1 during a short two-game road trip. Their first game was a crushing loss to San Diego State 80-55 but they did bounce back to beat Colorado State 88-74 on Friday. Rebels’ guard Bryce Hamilton had a career night after scoring 45 points to lead all scorers. Despite a slightly above average 12-9 record, the Rebels are in the hunt for the Mountain West title in sixth place with a 4-4 conference mark. 

The Rebels host the Nevada Wolf Pack tonight, losers of three of their last four games. However, those losses came against the two best teams in the MWC in Colorado State and Wyoming. The Wolf Pack are nipping at the Rebels’ heels in the conference standings and will be gunning for an upset win tonight as slim underdogs. 

Here are the odds for this Mountain West matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Nevada vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Nevada +1.5 (-110)
  • UNLV -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Nevada +100
  • UNLV -120

Total: 148 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

While it isn’t a particularly sexy topic, I wanted to talk a little about free-throw shooting to start with here. First of all, both teams are prolific foulers with the Rebels averaging 17.6 personal fouls per game and the Wolf Pack 17. On top of this, both teams are very good at baiting other teams to foul them. The Wolf Pack draws almost 19 personal fouls per game while the Rebels get 18.1.

I bring this up because while the Wolf Pack are in the top 60 in shooting percentage from the charity stripe (75.4%), the Rebels rank 141st in that category at around 72 percent. 

While some might overlook this as trivial, for a game with a spread this close, it could be the difference between an ATS win or loss.

However, I don’t think that will be the case in this game. As much as I’d love to rationalize betting an underdog because of FT shooting, I think Nevada is a team in trouble. They are coming off one of their worst losses in modern history to Utah State 78-49 and enter this game with a 5-12 ATS record on the year. As a road team, the Wolf Pack are just 1-4 ATS and I am not sure they are strong enough to bounce back tonight to cover.

LEAN: UNLV Rebels -1.5 (-110)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks