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Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 17 (Bet OVER on Saturday Night)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 14, 2024; Fresno, California, USA; UNLV Rebels forward Kalib Boone (10) reacts after making a
Feb 14, 2024; Fresno, California, USA; UNLV Rebels forward Kalib Boone (10) reacts after making a / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
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In-state rivals UNLV and Nevada meet out west on Saturday night with the Wolf Pack desperate to keep its NCAA Tournament standing in check. 

UNLV enters this rivalry showdown against Nevada winners of five straight, including a road win at New Mexico, another upset win for the Rebels this season. The team now faces Nevada, who lost to New Mexico at home earlier this week and can’t afford another blunder ahead of Selection Sunday. 

How should we bet this projected coin flip? 

Here’s our betting preview for this Mountain West showdown: 

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Nevada vs. UNLV Odds, Spread and Total

UNLV vs. Nevada Betting Trends

  • UNLV is 13-8 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Nevada is 15-9 ATS this season
  • UNLV is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Nevada has gone UNDER in 15 of 24 games against Division 1 competition

Nevada vs. UNLV How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 17th
  • Game Time: 11:30  PM EST
  • Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • Nevada Record: 19-6
  • UNLV Record: 14-9

Nevada vs. UNLV Key Players to Watch

Nevada

Kenan Blackshear: The engine behind this Wolf Pack offense, Blackshear had 17 points and seven assists to go with six rebounds in the close loss to New Mexico, and he’ll be challenged by an effective UNLV defense that pressures the ball well and forces contested looks all over. 

UNLV

Kalib Boone: The anchor of the Rebels’ defense, Boone is one of the best shot blockers in the country, posting a block rate of over seven percent this season. He puts pressure on the rim as a skilled finisher and will hope to generate second chances for the home team against Nevada who has the second lowest defensive rebounding rate in conference play. 

Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

This game is lined correctly, a true coin flip. There are many avenues in which this game can transpire as both teams rank outside the top 330 nationally in Haslametrics consistency metric, meaning that these are incredibly volatile teams game-to-game. 

Instead I’m going to target the over in this matchup. 

Neither offense plays particularly fast, but the key is that Nevada makes a point to get to the free throw, leading the Mountain West in free throw rate at over 43% this season. UNLV can fall into a foul-heavy game script, posting the third highest opponent free throw rate in Mountain West play, far higher than its non-conference rate. 

On the other side, I believe that UNLV can generate some answers against a Nevada defense that is trending in the wrong direction. The Wolf Pack are bottom third in the country in rim points per possession allowed at the rim, and it may be due to get worse as ShotQuality deems the team is owed a five percent increase in opponent finishing at the rim. 

UNLV is a rim reliant offense and is 41st in field goal percentage at the cup, and I think each team can find success on offense come Saturday night. 

Give me the over on Saturday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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