New England Patriots Fans Should Be Nervous About Their Vegas Win Total Projection

AFC Wild Card Playoffs - New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills
AFC Wild Card Playoffs - New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills / Timothy T Ludwig/GettyImages

If you’re a New England Patriots fan, I hope you’ve come to terms that your favorite team is no longer the Patriots of old. You are now the fan of an average team.

If you haven’t come to grips already, this season is going to be a tough one. 

WynnBET has the Patriots’ win total projection for this year at 8.5, with the OVER odds at -115 and the UNDER odds at +105. The Patriots finished last year with a 10-7 record, courtesy of a seven-game winning streak in the middle of the year. 

That streak alone is a sign that regression is coming, but here are the other reasons why you should fade the Pats. 

3 Reasons to Fade the Patriots' Win Total in 2022

First, the rest of the division got better. The Bills are a top-two favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Dolphins just added Tyreek Hill, and the Jets added a lot of talent through the draft. Meanwhile, the Patriots lost J.C. Jackson, one of the best corners in the league to the Los Angeles Chargers in free agency. It’s very possible that with the additions in the division – and the losses for New England – that the Patriots end up in last place in this division. 

Secondly, they don’t even know who is calling plays this season. Right now, Matt Patricia appears to be the lead candidate for the job. That doesn’t seem like a good idea considering how his time in Detroit went. Maybe Bill Belichick works his magic and makes him a solid play-caller, but that feels far-fetched at this moment. 

Lastly, Mac Jones needs to take a big leap to overcome the lack of talent on the outside. Jones played well last season, but he also finished the year on a low note. During the last month of the season, Jones threw six touchdowns and five interceptions.

It was clear New England had the training wheels on Jones last season. If he isn’t able to take them off, don’t expect the Pats to be the class of the division again. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.