New Mexico State vs. Arkansas Prediction and Odds for Second Round of NCAA Tournament

Arkansas took care of business as the No. 4 seed in the West region on Thursday night, beating Vermont, but failing to cover the 5 point spread.

Now, the Razorbacks continue on to the second round of the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament to face New Mexico State, who stunned UConn has seven-point underdogs on Thursday as a No. 12 seed.

Can the Aggies make it back-to-back upsets? Or will the red hot Hogs move onto the Sweet 16?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as well as the statistical profile of each team before making a best bet:

New Mexico State vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• New Mexico State: +6.5 (-110)
• Arkansas: -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• New Mexico State: +230
• Arkansas: -290

Total: 139.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

New Mexico State vs. Arkansas Analysis

New Mexico State

• Regular Season Record: 26-6
• ATS Record:17-12
• Over/Under Record: 16-13
• SoS: 131st
  
• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 107.8
• Defensive Efficiency: 97.7
  
• eFG%: 52.2%
• FT%: 69.3%
• 3PT%: 33.0%
  
• Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
• Odds to win National Championship: +20000

Arkansas

• Overall Record: 25-8
• ATS Record: 20-13
• Over/Under Record: 20-13
• SoS: 34th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.0
• Defensive Efficiency: 92.0

• eFG%: 49.2%
• FT%: 75.3%
• 3PT%: 30.7%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: Elite 8
• Odds to win National Championship: +5000

New Mexico State vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Interesting matchup as New Mexico State has Nebraska transfer Teddy Allen, who is fresh off a 37-point outing in the upset win over UConn, but I don't see him following it up with another superstar performance.

New Mexico State doesn't like to get into track meets, averaging the 292nd slowest offensive possession length, and they are going to struggle against a Razorbacks defense that wants to play fast and can force turnvoers. The Aggies turn it over at the 48th highest rate in the country and the Hogs are great at pressuring the ball. They have several wings that can stick on Allen and force others to beat him in Devo Davis and Au'Diese Toney.

I lean with Arkansas winning this one, the team has a pair of go-to threats in JD Notae and big man Jaylin Williams and have lost three games since January 12th. With that being said the spread feels a touch high given the fact that the Hogs have won close game after close game and struggled to close out Vermont in the first round.

I'm going to look to pair Eric Musselman's squad in a ML parlay.

LEAN: Arkansas ML in parlays

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 104-107-3 for -6.9 units.

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