Utah State won a wild afternoon showdown against Penn in double overtime, and now have a quick turnaround in the second round of the Myrtle Beach Invitational to face New Mexico State.
Meanwhile, NMSU won a back-and-forth affair against Davidson on Thursday afternoon, and now will look to take advantage of Utah State's short rotation.
New Mexico State vs. Utah State Odds, Spread and Total
- New Mexico State: -4.5 (-120)
- Utah State: +4.5 (+100)
- New Mexico State: -210
- Utah State: +175
Total: 134 (Over -110/Under -110)
New Mexico State vs. Utah State Pick and Prediction
It's tough to handicap how much fatigue should factor into a line, but it's clear that the betting market is putting a lot into it for this matchup. This line opened with New Mexico State -2, but quickly pushed towards -4.5, which is a bit too far for me, so I'm fading the steam and playing Justin Bean and Utah State.
While I'm concerned about the underdogs rotations, they go about seven deep and can run out of gas against a physical New Mexico State roster, I believe this is too many points to give. For starters, New Mexico State hasn't been forcing turnovers this season, 342nd in opponent turnover rate, and also play at a deliberate pace, 323 in average offensive possession length.
in a methodical matchup between two strong offenses, I believe in Bean, who is posting a 71.1 effective field goal percentage, can keep this game close against NMSU.
One issue to keep an eye on is Utah State's perimeter defense. New Mexico State hoists from three, the 76th highest in the country, while USU is 301st in opponent three-point rate. I believe that they can stay within this inflated number due to fatigue, but Bean and co. are going to need to make their shots.
If Utah State can build an early lead, I may look at a live middle on New Mexico State.
PICK: Utah State +4.5, look for New Mexico State live if they go down