New Mexico State vs. UTEP Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 8

Aggie quarterback Diego Pavia runs the ball during a NMSU football game on Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023,
Aggie quarterback Diego Pavia runs the ball during a NMSU football game on Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023, / Meg Potter/Sun-News / USA TODAY NETWORK

UTEP found a way to win on the road last week despite being down to the team's fourth-string quarterback, can Cade McConnell do it again?

Gavin Hardison is a game-time call for this one, so UTEP may need to go McConnell again against a New Mexico State team that has been potent on offense all season behind veteran quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia helped the Aggies build a 27-0 lead over Sam Houston State last week in the first half, can he keep the offense on track on Wednesday night?

Here's our betting preview for Wednesday's matchup with the Aggies looking to grab a road win in El Paso.

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New Mexico State vs. UTEP Odds, Spread and Total

UTEP vs. New Mexico State Betting Trends

  • UTEP is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • New Mexico State is 5-2 ATS this season
  • New Mexico State is 3-1 ATS as a favorite
  • New Mexico State has gone OVER in three of four games this season as a favorite

New Mexico State vs. UTEP How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, October 18th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Sun Bowl Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • New Mexico State Record: 4-3
  • UTEP Record: 2-5

New Mexico State vs. UTEP Key Players to Watch

New Mexico State

Diego Pavia: Pavia has been on point this season, leading an offense that is 10th in the country in net yards per play. Pavia is completing 62% of his passes for 1,516 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has added 523 yards on the ground.


Cade McConnell: We'll see if Hardison can go, but McConnell came out guns blazing for the Miners in his first career start. He led the Miners offense to 21 points in the first quarter, but the team fizzled out on offense, scoring only six points in the following three quarters. We'll see if the fourth-stringer can keep it up with a week of tape on him.

New Mexico State vs. UTEP Prediction and Pick

While UTEP got a great bump in energy and offensive execution against FIU last week on a fourth-string quarterback, I think this team is coming back to Earth on Wednesday. The team didn't score a touchdown after the first quarter and I believe the aggressive NMSU defense can get to McConnell with a defensive line that is top 20 in tackles for loss.

New Mexico State is outside the top 100 in defensive success rate, but the team has been great at limiting big plays and I don't have faith in McConnell or a banged-up Hardison to move the ball consistently to string together scoring drives.

Meanwhile, Pavia has been a big play threat at all times. The Aggies are 16th in EPA/Play this season and have been insanely efficient on the offensive line, top five in line yards this season with nearly six yards per carry. UTEP's defense is 112th in yards per carry allowed and will struggle to contain Pavia and the Aggies offense.

UTEP scored a feel-good win against a lowly opponent on the road. However, New Mexico State has turned it on with winning three of four games and I believe the visitors score a road win and cover.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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