New Mexico vs. Fresno State Prediction and Odds (Expect Low-Scoring Game in Rematch of Under Machines)
By Joe Summers
In a rematch of a 65-60 Fresno State victory last month, the 17-10 Bulldogs hope for a similar result when they host the 12-17 New Mexico Lobos tonight at 8:00 PM MST.
After an impressive 10-2-1 against the spread (ATS) stretch, the Lobos have failed to cover in four straight. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, won convincingly against Air Force in their last matchup but had also failed to cover their last four prior to that.
Will Fresno State ride the momentum of that win to a double-digit cover at home or does value lie with the Lobos keep the rematch close? Perhaps value lies in the total instead?
Here are the odds via WynnBET:
New Mexico vs Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- New Mexico +10.5 (-110)
- Fresno State -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- New Mexico: +450
- Fresno State: -600
Total:
- 134.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
New Mexico vs Fresno State Prediction and Pick
These teams have been under machines lately. The under has hit in seven straight Fresno State games and five straight New Mexico games as both offenses are struggling. They combined for just 125 points in their first matchup and I think this total is set too high.
In that first game, Fresno State shot 7/13 from beyond the arc, well above their season average of 32.5%. They have the 20th-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, don't shoot well or generate many free throw attempts and play at one of the slowest paces in all of college basketball. All lovely ingredients for an under.
The Lobos, meanwhile, play at a fast tempo and have a terrible defense, ranking 244th in efficiency, but haven't been able to control the pace in games they're large underdogs in. Fresno State should have no problem stretching possessions out against New Mexico's leaky defense.
In the Bulldogs' last 10 as a home favorite, the under is 8-2. I expect it to move to 9-2 today in another low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 134.5 (-110)
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