New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Friday, Feb. 16 (Value on Road Underdogs)
By Reed Wallach
Mountain West titans do battle on Saturday night when New Mexico travels to San Diego State in a rematch of an 88-70 win for the Lobos last month.
New Mexico is fresh off a thrilling road win at Nevada while San Diego State shut down fellow Mountain West contender Colorado State in the second half to score a home victory, who will build on early week results to start the weekend off with a statement on Friday night?
Here's how I'm eyeing the Mountain West rematch.
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Betting Trends
- New Mexico is 18-7 against the spread (ATS) this season
- New Mexico is 1-2 ATS as an underdog
- San Diego State is 10-13 ATS against Division 1 opponents
- New Mexico has gone OVER in nine of the last 10 games
New Mexico vs. San Diego State How to Watch
- Date: Friday, February 16th
- Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
- Venue: Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl
- How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
- New Mexico Record: 20-5
- San Diego State Record: 19-6
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Key Players to Watch
New Mexico
Jamal Mashburn Jr.: One of the three lead guards of this Lobos offense, Mashburn took center stage in Reno on Wednesday, propelling the Lobos to a road win against Nevada. Mashburn had a team high 17 points, including the game winner.
San Diego State
Jaedon LeDee: LeDee is a terror for opponents to deal with, averaging 20 points and eight rebounds while providing outstanding defense for the Aztecs. After trailing by 14 at halftime against Colorado State, LeDee helped lead a dominant second half that saw him finish the game with 27 points on 10-of-14 shooting while grabbing six rebounds.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick
In a non surprising development, a popular home favorite has taken a ton of money with a lot of situatoinal angles pointing towards the hosts. The Aztecs, who opened as a four-and-a-half point favorite, are now laying six-and-a-half in a game that closed wiht the Lobos favored by three-and-a-half a month ago.
These teams are roughly equal on a neutral, but the idea of getting San Diego State at home, who are 10-0 and have won every game by at least 11 points, is too good to pass up for bettors, but oddsmakers are making you pay for it.
KenPom has this game listed as SDSU -5, Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are each short of -4, so again, this is a severe tax you are paying without much justification.
Yes, Donovan Dent rolled his ankle on the final play of the Lobos thrilling win against Nevada, but I believe that there is way too much artificial steam on this game. Dent, while impactful, is worth more than a point to the spread, if he is even out (x-rays came back negative).
New Mexico was able to out-pace San Diego State with on its homecourt back on January 13th, and I believe the team can have success once again. The Lobos don't take many three's, preferring to get into the teeth of the defense with ball screens. SDSU plays drop coverage which will have the likes of LeeDee shutting off the rim for either Mashburn, Jaelen House or Dent (if he plays), but this has been a pressure point for the Aztecs defense all season.
New Mexico ranks 117th in points per possession in the pick-and-roll, per ShotQuality, running it at a top 50 clip. Meanwhile, SDSU has been cooked in this action all season. The Aztecs defense is 320th in points allowed per possession while gaurding the PNR.
Both teams offenses should put up numbers in this one, I find both interior defenses a bit overrated, each are outside the top 300 in points allowed per possession, but the difference is that New Mexico has the guard play to get inside, 33rd in finishing at the rim frequency and 15th in average shot proximity.
Meanwhile, San Diego State is far more comfortable settling for mid-range shots, 32nd in that metric, but New Mexico is 44th in field goal percentage allowed on mid-range shots, per Haslametrics. Further, the Lobos Mountain West leading turnover percentage can give the Aztec ball handlers fits, a group that is ninth in terms of protecting the ball in league play.
This is all to say that these two are fairly equal, but there are clear avenues to New Mexico keeping this close. Instead of paying an insane premium to get the home favorite, I'll take the discount on the road underdog.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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