New Mexico vs. Utah State Prediction and Odds (Back Lobos to Cover as Road Underdog)

The 15-13 Utah State Aggies have lost four straight but find themselves as heavy favorites when they host the 11-16 New Mexico Lobos tonight at 8:00 PM MST.

Last month, the Aggies beat the Lobos by three in a tightly contested 90-87 matchup. Will Utah State complete the season-sweep or does value lie with New Mexico to keep it close as a road underdog?

Let's check out the odds courtesy of WynnBET:

New Mexico vs Utah State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• New Mexico + 11.5 (-110)
• Utah State -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• New Mexico: +550
• Utah State: -825

Total:

• 149.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

New Mexico vs Utah State Prediction and Pick

For better or worse, Utah State is a very streaky team. Over the last few weeks, they've lost four in a row, won five in a row, and have now lost four in a row again as they try to flip the script tonight. They have an excellent offense, ranking 24th nationally in effective field goal percentage behind the 12th-best 2-point shooting percentage but are vulnerable on the perimeter and don't generate many opportunities for second-chance points with a low offensive rebounding rate.

That plays into the hands of a scrappy underdog like New Mexico, who ranks in the top-100 in three-point shooting and plays at the 23rd-fastest pace in the country. The Lobos are coming off back-to-back losses but prior to that had covered the spread in 10 of 13 games. They've covered six of their last eight as a road underdog and seem to always find a way to keep these games close even if they don't pull off a win.

The first matchup between these teams went into overtime thanks to torrid shooting from New Mexico and while I don't think they're likely to shoot 17/34 from beyond the arc again, they won't need to in order to stay within the large spread.

Utah State is vulnerable right now. They've lost and failed to cover the spread in three straight by an average of an average of over 15 points a game. The Aggies have only covered as a favorite in three of their last nine games and I think we see them continue to struggle tonight.

Give me New Mexico +11.5 as they improve to 16-8-2 against the spread on the year.

Pick: New Mexico +11.5