New Orleans Saints 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

For the first time since 2006, the Saints will be starting a season with someone other than Drew Brees under center.

He eclipsed a 142-86 record in his 15-year career in New Orleans, earning 12 Pro Bowl nods and a Super Bowl victory over the Indianapolis Colts in 2010.

Brees will always be a beloved figure in that city for reasons that extend beyond his accomplishments on the field, but it’s also fair to evaluate the Saints as a team that vanquished opportunities in the postseason as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Moments like the Minneapolis Miracle throw from Case Keenum to Stefon Diggs in 2018, or the blatant pass interference no-call in 2019 were no fault of their own, but they two, have become footnotes on a long list of disappointing playoff losses over the Drew Brees era.

In 2020, the Saints’ took their 12-4 record into the first round of the playoffs, winning 21-9 over a hapless Bears squad in the Wild Card game, before losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers in the Divisional Round. New Orleans was the favorite in that matchup having defeated Tampa Bay twice during the regular season, outsourcing them 72-26 in both games.

New Orleans Saints 2021 Outlook

Last year’s backup quarterback Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans for an open competition with Taysom Hill for the starting spot. Because both quarterbacks are vastly different, it is expected that the Saints will name their starter earlier rather than later to properly adapt their offense and game plan to their starter’s best skillsets. WynnBET has given the slight edge to Winston to begin the season at No. 1 on the depth chart based on odds available for multiple quarterback player props.

Regardless of who is named the starter under center, they’ll have one of the best offensive weapons in Alvin Kamara behind them in the backfield. Kamara scored 21 total touchdowns in 2020, rushing for a career high 932 yards while also taking in a career best 83 receptions. He’ll need to be a major factor once again from the beginning as their top wide receiver Michael Thomas on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list after undergoing ankle surgery in June.

The defense returns several starters from last year where they finished with the best overall defense via Football Outsiders DVOA. They also led the NFL in interceptions. However, their top rated squad is likely to regress with key names gone in Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander and Sheldon Rankins moving on.

Saints 2021 NFL Draft

New Orleans focused the bulk of their picks on adding depth to their defense, taking edge rusher Payton Turner, linebacker Pete Werner and cornerback Paulson Adebo in the first three rounds. Several of their newcomers could take the field early in the 2021 season.

New Orleans Saints Odds: Division, Conference, Super Bowl

WynnBET Sportsbook has the Saints with the second lowest odds behind the Buccaneers (-220) to win the division at +300. The Falcons (+900) and Panthers (+1000) are distant underdogs.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is +1200 to reach the Super Bowl and take home the NFC, and are +2500 with the Colts and Dolphins to win Super Bowl 56. 

New Orleans Saints Regular Season Win Total: 9 WINS | OVER (+100), UNDER (-120)

Ben Heisler:

The Saints schedule is not a particularly easy one, but it’s certainly winnable.

So what’s the difference?

The division is top-heavy. The Falcons enter a full-on rebuild with a first-time head coach in Arthur Smith, and the Panthers, while improving, under second-year coach Matt Rhule remain in the midst of a rebuild themselves.

New Orleans fans won't be thrilled to see Aaron Rodgers returning to camp for Green Bay, indicating he’ll be under center in their season opener against the Saints, but the matchup is still at home which could theoretically keep it close. After that, it’s four straight matchups against bad to mediocre teams from a season ago: at Carolina, at New England, home vs the Giants, and then back on the road vs. Washington.

The schedule gets fairly daunting in the middle of the season, but some early equity, along with an easy end to the season should be what helps the Saints get over the edge.

I’m still predicting Jameis Winston to be the starter as teams will have to adjust to a quarterback actually taking more shots deep compared to years past. That should open up receiving lanes underneath for Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill will remain a factor as well. 

The Saints won’t be great, but to earn the final playoff spot in the NFC, they may not need to be.

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (+100)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+350)

Donnavan Smoot:

I don’t think the Saints are going to be one of the top teams in the NFC. However, I do believe that they will be better than expected. The Saints lost Drew Brees, but am I the only one that saw Brees throw the ball last season? His arm was shot and he couldn’t push the ball down the field. 

With Jameis Winston expected to be the starter (according to the odds), New Orleans is going to be able to push the ball down the field and have a threat of a vertical passing game. Winston comes with turnover concerns, but I believe that he has enough around him to keep him grounded. 

Winston will have challenges early, specifically missing Michael Thomas. When he gets healthy, Winston is going to have one of the best running backs in the league to pair with one of the best wide receivers in the league. 

The Saints have one of the best supporting casts,on both sides of the ball in the NFL. With an extra game on the schedule, that cast should be able to keep them in ball games - specifically in a weak NFC South. New Orleans still has a great defense, Alvin Kamara and the Superdome on its side, and it will ride those things to the over on the win total line. 

PREDICTION: OVER 9.0 WINS (+100)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 10 WINS (+450)

Peter Dewey: 

Drew Brees is gone, but the Saints aren’t completely doomed in 2021. New Orleans has about as good of a backup plan as you could ask. Taysom Hill went 3-1 as the starter last year and will compete against Jameis Winston for the starting job. 

While Winston seems to be the right choice considering he is a far superior passer, his turnover troubles earlier in his career are certainly a concern. WynnBET actually expects some growth from Winston as a passer in 2021, and that’s going to be important with Michael Thomas facing an extended absence this season.

What’s underrated about New Orleans is that it had the No. 4 defense in the league last season. While Thomas, Brees and Alvin Kamara usually get all of the hype, the Saints have quietly built a solid defensive unit led by Cam Jordan, Malcolm Jenkins, Demario Davis and Marshon Lattimore. 

Brees wasn’t great in his final year in the league, averaging just 7.5 yards per attempt (which was less than Hill’s 7.7), and it’s not like Winston hasn’t shown the ability to sling the ball effectively led the league in passing yards in 2019). It’s just a matter of whether or not he can take care of the ball. 

If Sean Payton wants to have his team play safe to hide Winston’s achilles heel, New Orleans may have to lean on its defense more in 2021. Kamara and Latavius Murray showed they could carry the team on the ground offensively last season when Brees was out of the lineup, so it’s possible the Saints try to employ that game plan again this season. 

After looking at their schedule, I think the Saints can hit the over on that projected number of nine wins. 

Not only do you get some value at +100 odds, but when four games come against the Falcons and Panthers in a 17-game season, the Saints should be able to push for double-digit wins. 

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (+100)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 10 WINS (+450)

Iain MacMillan:

Everyone is focused on the quarterback position for the Saints this season since it will be the first time since 2006 that Drew Brees won’t be their starting quarterback. But while everyone will be keeping their eyes glued to that position in training camp, it’s the Saints defense that I find the most intriguing.

The Saints were 2nd in the NFL in 2020 in opponent yards per game, only allowing an average of 307.2. They were also the third best scoring defense, allowing teams to put up only 20.9 points per game. With the large majority of their defense from last season returning for the 2021 campaign, I find it hard to imagine that they’ll win fewer than nine games.

As much as the Falcons fan in me wants to see the ‘Aints fail, a good coach and a great defense can carry a team a long way, even with a question mark at quarterback.

PREDICTION: OVER 9 (+100)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 11 WINS (+600)

Will the New Orleans Saints Reach the Playoffs? | YES (+110), NO (-140)

Ben Heisler:

Even with the defense likely to regress, I think the Saints will be a solid enough team to continue their season into January. 

I expect New Orleans to sneak into the final playoff spot in the NFC, aided by their final two games against the doormats of the division in Carolina and Atlanta to help boost their chances.

The NFC basically will come down to the Buccaneers and Packers duking it out for the first round bye, and then letting the NFC West beat up on each other to likely earn 2-3 postseason spots. Maybe the Vikings and Bears can also improve from their down years as well.

The Saints won’t be great, but to earn the final playoff spot in the NFC, they may not need to be.

PREDICTION: YES (+110)

Donnavan Smoot:

Although I see the Saints exceeding expectations, they will not make the playoffs. Winston will do a good job this season, but the Saints are going to miss the IQ of Brees, and that might end up costing them a trip to the postseason. The Buccaneers are going to win the division, which means the path to the postseason would be via a wild card spot. 

I see the Saints as a fringe wild card team, and I trust the entire NFC West division and even teams in the NFC North more than I do the Saints. Sadly for Who Dat Nation, they will be on the outside looking in. 

PREDICTION: NO (-140)

Peter Dewey: 

When you look at the NFC, there really aren’t that many guaranteed playoff teams. Sure, the Buccaneers and Packers should win their divisions and make the playoffs, but the NFC West is going to have a bunch of teams beating up on each other. 

Even if three teams from the NFC West make the playoffs, that still leaves another wild card spot open for a team like New Orleans. I don’t see the NFC East getting more than one playoff team unless the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team both seriously outperform their projections. 

If the NFC playoff picture ends up with Green Bay, Dallas, Tampa Bay and say the Rams winning the divisions (current favorites on WynnBET), I think the Saints could sneak in along with a couple other NFC West teams. 

They certainly could underperform given the quarterback questions, but the NFC South is going to help the Saints pick up a few easy wins (I’d hope) and I’d take my chances at +110 odds on Sean Payton finding a way to get his team into the postseason. 

PREDICTION: YES (+110)

Iain MacMillan:

I’m not completely sold that Drew Brees was the main reason for the Saints success the past few years. Teddy Bridgewater did a more than serviceable job covering for the Brees when he was injured in 2019, and Taysom Hill had similar results as the start in 2021. In fact, the Saints have gone 8-2 in the past two seasons when Brees was sidelined.

Pair that with their defense, which proved to be one of the best units in the league last season, and the Saints are in a great position to grab at least a wild card spot in the 2021 NFL playoffs.

PREDICTION: YES (+110)

Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Atlanta Falcons, and check out our first team preview for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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