New Orleans Saints 2022 NFL Season Betting Preview (How High Can Jameis Winston Elevate This Offense?)

The BetSided team of editors is rolling out a brand new betting preview for every NFL team ahead of the start of this season.

So far, our list has covered 13 NFL teams, ranking from the lowest projected win total to the highest. As we inch closer to the midway point, today's breakdown focuses around a team with a very high ceiling, but still plenty of unknowns in the New Orleans Saints.

After 15 years on the job, Sean Payton chose retirement (for now), as longtime Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen takes over for his second career stint as a head coach. Payton won 152 games and a Super Bowl during his tenure in New Orleans, and while Allen's defensive unit played well in a down 9-8 season, it's the offense that has the chance to make or break their 2022 campaign.

Jameis Winston went 5-2 as a starter a season ago before getting hurt in Week 8; leading the Saints down a five-game losing streak; before winning four of their final five games to finish a game above .500. With Winston back, along with star wideout Michael Thomas from injury, can New Orleans reach the level they aspire to be offensively?

Over this preview, we'll take a closer look at their offseason moves, plus peer in on their upcoming schedule and where it ranks across the league. We'll also assess how the oddsmakers expect the Saints to do, plus my prediction on whether those numbers are too low, too high, or just where they should be.

New Orleans Saints 2022 Offseason Moves and Signings

• Announced Sean Payton's retirement; naming Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach. Kris Richard & Ryan Nielsen named co-defensive coordinators.
• Re-signed Jameis Winston to a two-year contract
• Added safeties Tyrann Mathieu, and Marcus Maye via free agency; replacing Marcus Williams (Ravens) and Malcolm Jenkins (retirement)
• Signed receiver Jarvis Landry
• Drafted wide receiver Chris Olave and tackle Trevor Penning in the first round of the 2022 Draft

New Orleans Saints 2022 Schedule

Sharp Football Analysis ranks New Orleans' upcoming schedule as the 9th-easiest of every NFL team this season.

The Saints start off with three straight division games: on the road vs. Atlanta, home against Tampa Bay, and back on the road vs. Carolina. While Tampa Bay owns the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, the Falcons are only projected for 4.5 wins at consensus sportsbooks, while the Panthers are slightly better at 5.5.

New Orleans will need a strong start in their first six games, as Weeks 7-13 all feature matchups against playoff teams from a season ago before a late bye in Week 14.

New Orleans Saints 2022 Win Total Prediction

• OVER 8.5 Wins (-105)
• UNDER 8.5 Wins (-115)

I'm buying on the Saints this season, but they'll need to get off to a good start to have a shot.

At minimum, they'll need to go 2-1 against their division in the first three games. Besides the Buccaneers, the rest of the division is garbage with four very winnable games against bottom-feeders in the Falcons and Panthers; albeit on the road. Factor in Allen's success in scheming up against Tom Brady and they should end up 2-1 minimum with a shot at 3-0.

Following matchups with the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals in the next three weeks; including two at home; I project New Orleans at 4-2 before their grueling Week 7-13 stretch against very solid teams from a season ago.

Even if they go 2-4; they're at 6-6 before home games against Atlanta and Carolina, along with trips to Cleveland and Philadelphia to round out the final portion of their schedule.

It's going to be close, but the Saints' defense is still excellent and if the offense takes another step in the right direction with Winston returning, there's enough talent here to get them over this number.

PICK: OVER 8.5 Wins (-105)

New Orleans Saints' 2022 Odds to Win NFC South, NFC and Super Bowl

• To Make the Playoffs: +125 | To Miss the Playoffs: -155
• Odds to Win NFC South: +310
• Odds to Win NFC: +2000
• Odds to Win Super Bowl 57: +4000

I think the betting public is sleeping on this year's Saints squad in large part because of Tom Brady's return for at least another season. The Buccaneers are the consensus favorites to win the NFC as well as the Super Bowl, so when that team is right in your division; it's easy to get overlooked.

However, with all the mounting injuries to Tampa Bay's offensive line, if the Saints can stay relatively healthy early on, I expect them to be a contending team in the NFC this year.

The expectation for the defense is to return to top 10 form. Cameron Jordan finished the final four games of the season with 8.5 sacks, and the Saints return plenty of depth in their lineman up front. New Orleans has had a dominant rush defense over the last several years, and if Jordan can avoid double-teams early on, he should be on pace to create havoc again.

Their offense, however, has one of the highest ceilings in the conference. Winston had an impressive 14 touchdowns through seven games compared to just three interceptions, and while he wasn't the gunslinger of old, he still managed the Saints' offense very effectively. Despite Alvin Kamara's potential legal issues, reports are that he may not face discipline until the 2023 season.

At wide receiver, Chris Olave was the 11th overall pick in the draft, and Michael Thomas returns along with Jarvis Landry in free agency. Tack on Tre'Quan Smith and Marquez Calaway in the mix, plus Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill at tight end, and there's more than enough weapons for Winston to get the ball to.

The offensive line is still a work-in-progress, but with the investment in Penning at left tackle in the first round, if he figures it out early, that's a huge win both in the short term and long term for New Orleans.

Ultimately, I'm backing the talent on this team to make a playoff run at +125, and I may sprinkle a little bit on them to win the NFC South and NFC if Tampa's health issues continue. I don't quite see a path to winning the Super Bowl against a stacked NFC, but this should be a fun season in New Orleans after a frustrating 2021.

Follow along with BetSided's picks on Betstamp all season long.