NFL Best Bets for Monday's Playoff Games

Sep 25, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs out of the
Sep 25, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs out of the / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend will wrap up on Monday.

We were originally supposed to have just one game today, but with the postponement of the Steelers vs. Bills matchup, we now have two games to watch and bet on.

If you're looking for some plays, you've come to the right place. I'm going to give you my best bet along with my best player prop for both games today.

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Top NFL Picks and Predictions Today

Steelers vs. Bills Best Bet

Don't be blinded by the few impressive wins the Steelers had down the stretch. Let's remember who they beat in these games. They took down two of the worst defensive teams in the NFL in the Bengals and Seahawks and then beat a Ravens team that was resting a good portion of their starters.

Let's look at this Steelers team as a whole. They enter the postseason ranking last amongst all playoff teams in Net Yards per Play, ranking 26th in the NFL. Only the Cardinals, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, Commanders, and Giants rank worse.

They will also be missing their biggest difference maker on defense, T.J. Watt, who might be the most impactful defensive player in the league.

They also have been the luckiest team in the NFL, if you believe in those metrics.

Now, they take on a Bills team who has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the second half of the season. Their defense, which was horrible to start the year, ranks fifth amongst all teams in opponent EPA dating back to Week 10.

Congratulations to the Steelers for making the playoffs, but they're completely outmatched in this spot and they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Bills -10

Steelers vs. Bills Best Prop Bet

Mason Rudolph has done enough to lead the Steelers to the playoffs, but I think he comes crashing back down to earth on Saturday. The Bills' secondary has been one of the best in the second half of the season and Rudolph's success this year has come against two of the worst secondaries in the Seahawks and Bengals.

Expect the Steelers to stick to the run game on Monday and for Rudolph to struggle when they find themselves in must-pass situations.

Pick: Mason Rudlph UNDER 170.5 Passing Yards

Buccaneers vs. Eagles Best Bet

There's no question the Eagles are the more talented team in this matchup and even with stumbling down the stretch, they largely have better metrics than the Buccaneers. At the same time, it's hard to look past this complete implosion by them and it's hard to imagine what their locker room culture is like after this horrific stretch of play.

So, instead of backing a side, I'm going to take the OVER because the one thing I do know about this matchup is that both offenses are far better than their defenses.

The Eagles defense has been the biggest cause for their issues. They have fallen all the way down to 29th in opponent EPA per Play with only the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Commanders ranking worse. Most notably, it's been their secondary that has been especially bad, allowing teams to throw the ball all over the field against them.

That should bode well for the Buccaneers offense, as 71.64% of their offensive yards gained this season has come through the air, the fourth highest mark in the NFL.

Despite their woes, the Eagles offense can still be explosive and they have enough talent to overwhelm the Buccaneers' defense, which has been average at best this season. In their previous meeting, the Eagles gained a blistering 6.1 yards per play against them. If they can do the same on Monday night, I have no doubt they'll put points on the board.

I'm going to fade both defenses in this game and root for points in the final game of Super Wild Card Weekend.

Pick: OVER 43

Buccaneers vs. Eagles Best Prop Bets

Mike Evans averaged 73.8 receiving yards per game this season so as long as he hits his season average, this bet is going to be a winner. Now, he and the Buccaneers get to face an imploding Eagles defense that became one of the worst in the NFL by the end of the season.

The Eagles gave up 252.7 passing yards per game, the second most in the NFL. There should be plenty of receiving yards to go around and with Evans being the top option in the passing game, I expect him to reach at least 68 yards on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!