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NFL Best Bets for Week 1 (Target These 3 Underdogs)

Three NFL Week 1 picks to consider when locking in those football wagers. 

By Shelby Dermer

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) ready to take the field against Detroit Lions during the first half of a preseason game at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, August 24, 2024.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) ready to take the field against Detroit Lions during the first half of a preseason game at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, August 24, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The long wait is over. The NFL makes its triumphant return Thursday night in another Super Bowl banner unveiling at Arrowhead Stadium.

The excitement doesn’t end there. There are NFL games to watch and wager on in four of the next five nights, highlighted by a monster Week 1 slate. 

Here are three teams to consider backing in the opening week of the season. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Bets for NFL Week 1 

  • New England Patriots (+8.5)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
  • New York Jets (+4.5)

New England Patriots (+8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals 

Yes, based on their roster and having the lowest win total (4.5) in the NFL, the New England Patriots seem set up for a long season under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. 

However, the numbers back up a play on the Patriots in Sunday’s opener in Cincinnati. The public has been throwing money at the Bengals to cover this big spread with no concern over Cincinnati’s recent September struggles. 

The Bengals have lost outright as favorites in each of their last two season-openers and have gone just 2-4-1 ATS in September over the last two seasons. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is just 1-3 ATS in Week 1 in his career, which is tied with Daniel Jones for the worst mark in the NFL of any quarterback playing in Week 1 this year. 

Burrow’s biggest weapon, Ja’Marr Chase, is back in practice and expected to play, but he’ll be shaking off the rust from a hold-in. Last year, the Patriots were brutal on the offensive end, but the defense held tough, ranking No. 4 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 11th against the pass. New England was 15th in scoring defense and could cause enough problems in this matchup to hang around. 

If Drake Maye was making his NFL debut in this matchup, it wouldn’t be as juicy for the underdog. Instead, it’s Jacoby Brissett under center for the Patriots. A veteran quarterback, Brissett is careful with the football (51 career touchdowns vs. 23 interceptions) and can manage the game well enough for New England to hang around. 

Favorites of 7-plus points in Week 1 are 14-27 ATS since 2003 and the Bengals have not shown the ability to get off to a hot start. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons 

Do you really need to revisit Mike Tomlin’s absurd ATS numbers as an underdog? Tomlin, who famously has never had a losing season as Pittsburgh’s head coach, is 57-31-3 all-time as an underdog. That phenomenal 64.3% hit rate bodes well for the Steelers’ Week 1 road trip to Atlanta.

The Falcons should be in for a bounce-back season. They have veteran leadership at the quarterback position in Kirk Cousins, something they haven’t had since Matt Ryan retired. However, Cousins is still a 36-year-old pocket passer coming off a torn Achilles. He didn’t play a snap for the Falcons in the preseason and could be shaking off some rust against a formidable Steelers defense. 

Yes, all the headlines for the Steelers this offseason are about the quarterback battle between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. After losing out in the Brandon Aiyuk sweepstakes, there’s a severe lack of weapons in the offense. Still, this is a Steelers’ defense that gets it done on the scoreboard. Last year, Pittsburgh ranked sixth in scoring, giving up just 19.1 points per game. 

The Steelers ranked 11th in the NFL in sacks last season and with proven weapons on the defensive line like T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward, Pittsburgh should make it uncomfortable on Cousins in his first game back with a new offense. 

Pittsburgh should have one of the NFL’s best defenses and, with a sub-par offense on paper, should be involved in low-scoring rock fights all season long. This is one of the most-bet unders in the NFL for Week 1, so take the Steelers with a head coach that thrives in the underdog role. 

New York Jets (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers 

We’re fading one veteran quarterback coming off a torn Achilles and backing the other. It might sound hypocritical, but the Jets have one of the best rosters in the NFL and get a San Francisco squad at the right time. 

For starters, Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a calf strain and is expected to be less than 100% in this matchup. He’s still a weapon when he’s out on the field, but who knows Kyle Shanahan’s zone-running schemes better than his former defensive coordinator? Robert Saleh has had an entire summer to string together a solid gameplan to slow down the 49ers’ rushing attack and make Brock Purdy beat them through the air. 

If they can do that, it’s a recipe for success with the Jets’ boasting the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL last season. The Super Bowl loser has gone 5-19 ATS in Week 1 since 2000. Maybe there’s a hangover from that overtime loss? If not, there’s still plenty of reasons to like the Jets as underdogs. 

New York was still good enough to win seven games with abominable quarterback play after Rodgers went down. We’re all expecting Rodgers to last more than a handful of snaps this time around and with running back Breece Hall as a rising star, the Jets’ offense should be good enough to hang around as a 4.5-point underdog.

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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