Betsided

NFL Best Bets for Week 10 (Never Count Out Steelers as a Home Underdog)

By Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Iain MacMillan, Joe Summers

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has gone 14-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog, as well as 13-4 straight up in his last 17 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has gone 14-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog, as well as 13-4 straight up in his last 17 games. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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The BetSided team bounced back with a 3-1-1 week in Week 9, highlighted by the Ravens beatdown of the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football, the Seattle Seahawks moneyline upset in Arizona vs. the Cardinals, and the under 46.5 in the Meadowlands with the New York Jets stunning the Buffalo Bills 20-17.

Heading into the second half of the NFL season, our best bets have now gone 21-19-2 ATS in the first half.

Time to stay hot with our favorite NFL betting plays of the week from our team of editors!

NFL Best Bets for Week 10

  • Steelers ML +125 vs. Saints - Ben Heisler
  • Texans vs. Giants UNDER 41 (-110) - Joe Summers
  • Cowboys -5 (-110) at Packers - Iain MacMillan
  • Cardinals ML (+108) at Rams - Donnavan Smoot

Steelers ML +125 vs. Saints

The Baltimore Ravens provided the ideal blueprint to stopping the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. They converted nine of 15 third downs, keeping a tired Saints defense on the field, and beat the hell out of Andy Dalton; sacking the New Orleans quarterback four times and stopping them on third down 8 of 11 times.

If Dalton and the Saints' offensive line couldn't handle the pressure from 33 year-old Justin Houston last week, they're in serious trouble off a short week in Pittsburgh with T.J. Watt likely back for the Steelers.

The against the spread numbers for Mike Tomlin in these spots are spectacular, but should also be taken with a grain of salt considering Ben Roethlisberger is no longer there. Tomlin is 14-2-1 as a home underdog in his last 17 games, and is somehow also 13-4 straight up as a home dog as well, including winners of seven straight. There's been plenty of those games that have featured no Big Ben, or a very limited No. 7 under center, so this team comes ready to play, especially having rested up off their Week 9 bye.

I took this line at -3 early in the week, and it's also my upset pick for Week 10. I'm on-board the Steelers train, so grab your terrible towels and back the short dog at home. - Ben Heisler

Texans vs. Giants UNDER 41 (-110)

We get to back perhaps the most profitable NFL betting trend there is: the under in Giants home games. The under is a remarkable 14-1-1 in New York's last 16 matchups at the MetLife Stadium, and I expect that trend to continue in a battle of two underwhelming offenses

Both the Giants and Texans rank in the bottom nine in the NFL in yards per play. In fact, the Giants' 4.6 yards per play mark over the last three weeks would rank dead-last over the course of the full season. Each team is in the bottom 10 in seconds per play as well, so I expect a methodical, low-scoring contest.

Houston averages only 16.6 points per game and the Giants average just 19.8 at home. Unless we see some special teams magic, I don't see either offense putting up enough points to push this total over.

Back the under confidently to improve to 15-1-1 in New York's last 17 games at home. - Joe Summers

Cowboys -5 (-110) at Packers

The Packers are officially broken. They're 15th in yards per play despite their games against subpar defenses, including gaining only 5.6 yards per play and scoring nine points against the league's worst defense, the Detroit Lions.

Now, they have to face one of the best defenses in the league. The Cowboys rank fourth in opponent yards per play and first in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 11.22% of their drop backs.

The Cowboys offense also looked fantastic in their last game. They gained 7.8 yards per play and scored 49 points in against the Chicago Bears.

I see no reason to bet on the Packers until they prove to me that they're anymore than a shell of their former selves.

Cardinals ML (+108) at Rams

I don’t know why, but I keep trying to talk myself into believing in the Cardinals as a frisky “can-do-it” team. This pick is more about the Rams being bad rather than the Cardinals being competent.

Los Angeles put Matthew Stafford in the concussion protocol today, just two days before the game. If Stafford can’t go, the Rams’ already struggling offense will be a tough sight to see. Arizona at least has Deandre Hopkins and is getting healthier at running back.

This hasn’t been a great year for the Rams, and I’ll fade them this week. - Donnavan Smoot

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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