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NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 5 (2 Running Backs to Target, 1 to Fade)

Looking at the three best prop bets to consider for Week 5.

By Shelby Dermer

Sep 19, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs with the ball against the New England Patriots during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Sep 19, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs with the ball against the New England Patriots during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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We’ve turned the corner to October and we’ll get a clear vision on who the contenders and pretenders are this month with four weeks of the NFL season in the books.

While bye weeks have begun, there is still a loaded slate littered with competitive matchups to attack from a betting perspective. Before we get to bets to make against the spread, here are some prop bets to consider for the Week 5 action.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 5 

  • Breece Hall UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards 
  • D’Andre Swift OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer 

Breece Hall UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Wake up early Sunday morning and fade Breece Hall Sunday when the Jets take on the Minnesota Vikings in London. 

Minnesota’s defense, led by Brian Flores, has been superb through four games this season and rank fourth in run stop win rate and second in rushing yards allowed per game. The Vikings have held three of four starting running backs under this yardage prop this season and we’ve gotta see more out of the Jets’ offense. 

New York ranks 29th in the NFL in run blocking win rate and Hall has gone from a potential bell-cow back to being stuck in the mud at 3.1 yards per carry while 20-year-old Braelon Allen has looked more explosive (4.8 yards per carry) in the backfield. 

Fantasy owners are worried about a possible timeshare in the backfield between Hall and Allen. Over the last three weeks, Hall has received just 60.6% of the carries (40) in the backfield and has generated little success and the matchup is not great this week across the pond. 

D’Andre Swift OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

It’s safe to speculate whether D’Andre Swift saved his job in the Chicago backfield last week. After combining to run for just 68 yards on 37 carries through the first three games, Swift turned 16 attempts into 93 yards and a touchdown in the Bears’ 24-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

We’ll ride the hot hand with a Bears’ offense that wants to alleviate pressure off its rookie quarterback with a solid rushing attack and this Sunday is a great opportunity to do that against the lowly Panthers. Carolina ranks 29th in run stop win rate and 28th in rushing defense (148.8 yards per game). 

Those numbers were largely produced with a healthy Panthers’ defense, too. Carolina lost two linebackers - Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell - in last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Inexperience at that position led to Cincinnati churning out 131 yards rushing behind the tandem of Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Thompson (Achilles) is gone for the year and Jewell (hamstring/groin) is expected to miss Sunday's game against the Bears after not practicing on Wednesday.

Chicago could be nursing a lead in this game and running out the clock on the ground. Or Swift could gobble up a large chunk of this prop on one play, like his 36-yard fourth-quarter touchdown last week against the Rams. Either way, we’ll take it.  

Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer (-180)

Henry has run for a touchdown in every game this season in his first year with Baltimore, so the vig is getting heavy at -180 for the four-time Pro-Bowler to find the endzone. 

Henry is coming off a 199-yard performance in Sunday’s dismantling of the Buffalo Bills, where he found the endzone on the ground and through the air. This week offers a dream matchup for Henry to continue his hot streak (350 rushing yards over the last two weeks) when Baltimore visits Cincinnati as small road favorites. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL and the Bengals have shown no interest in stopping the run, giving up 145.5 yards per game (26th in the NFL). Injuries have hampered the Bengals’ defensive line, specifically on the interior with two defensive tackles sidelined each of the last two weeks. 

It appears the Bengals should get one of those defensive tackles (B.J. Hill) back this week, but it shouldn’t stop a Ravens’ offense from feeding Henry, who has averaged 81 rushing yards per game in his career against Cincinnati during the regular season and has scored at least one touchdown in three of the last four games. 

Any pro-Henry prop in this game is favorable, so it’s worth it to take a shot on two-plus touchdowns (+310), over 84.5 rushing yards (-125) or for Henry to record his third-straight 100-yard game (+140).

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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