NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Who Is the Top Candidate for Each Team?

The first wave of NFL Free Agency is behind us and the 2024 draft is in the books which means it's time to start looking forward to the start of the regular season.

We may still be a few months away from that, but there's no time like the present to take a look at the odds to win each award next season as well as place a few bets.

One of those awards is the Comeback Player of the Year. There are some intriguing candidates to win it this season like Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and and Kirk Cousins. In this article, I'm going to list and break down the leading candidate from every team this season.

All odds listed in this article are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Top Comeback Player of the Year Candidate for Every Team (Based on Odds)

AFC East Leading Comeback Player of the Year Candidates

• Buffalo Bills: Chase Claypool (+20000)
• Miami Dolphins: Bradley Chubb (+12500)
• New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers (+175)
• New England Patriots: Matthew Judon (+8000)

Aaron Rodgers enters the season as the betting favorite to win the award after playing just four snaps for the New York Jets in 2023. If he stays healthy all of 2024 and shows even a glimmer of his former MVP self, he's the obvious winner of this award.

Another interesting candidate in the AFC East is Matthew Judon of the New England Patriots. He finished ninth in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2022 and then played in just four game alst year before getting hurt. With that being said, we haven't seen a defensive player win this award since Eric Berry returned from battling cancer in 2015.

AFC North Leading Comeback Player of the Year Candidates

• Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews (+10000)
• Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (+250)
• Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb (+1800)
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Russell Wilson (+1500)

There are plenty of candidate in the AFC North. Joe Burrow is second on the odds list at +250 behind only Aaron Rodgers, but Nick Chubb makes an interesting case at +1800. Deshaun Watson is another option for the Browns at +2000.

Russell Wilson wasn't hurt in 2023, but he a successful year could be viewed at as "coming back" after a couple of horrific years in Denver. After all, the definition of the award is "a player who overcomes adversity to return tor remarkable performance, in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year, a severe injury, or simply poor performance". Wilson would fall under the latter. Geno Smith won this award in 2022 by doing exactly that.

AFC South Leading MVP Candidates

• Houston Texans: Tank Dell (+4000)
• Jacksonville Jaguars: N/A
• Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson (+550)
• Tennessee Titans: Will Levis (+10000)

Anthony Richardson is third on the odds list amongst all NFL Players to be named Comeback Player of the Year. He played in just four games in his rookie season before suffering a season-ending injury.

Tank Dell is the only other real option inside the division. Another promising rookie whose first year in the league was cut short due to injury. He played in 11 games in 2023, starting in eight of them before being sidelined.

AFC West Leading MVP Candidates

• Kansas City Chiefs: N/A
• Denver Broncos: N/A
• Los Angeles Chargers: JK Dobbins (+4000)
• Las Vegas Raiders: Gardner Minshew (+4000)

JK Dobbins is the only strong candidate to win this award in the AFC West. The former Baltimore Raven has been plagued by injuries throughout his young career, but when he's healthy, he's been fantastic, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Now with the Chargers, he's in a great spot to make some noise if he can stay off the injured list.

NFC East Leading MVP Candidates

• Philadelphia Eagles: CJ Gardner-Johnson (+10000)
• Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott (+8000)
• New York Giants: Daniel Jones (+2800)
• Washington Commanders: N/A

Daniel Jones of the New York Giants is the top candidate out of the NFC East. He was signed to a huge contract after a strong 2022 season but was plagued by both injury and terrible play in 2023. No one would be happier than Giants fans to see him be a top contender for this award in 2024.

NFC North Leading MVP Candidates

• Green Bay Packers: N/A
• Detroit Lions: N/A
• Minnesota Vikings: TJ Hockenson (+10000)
• Chicago Bears: N/A

There is only one player in the entire NFC North who is a contender for this year and it's Vikings' tight end, TJ Hockenson. He played in 15 games in 2023 before eventually going down with an injury. I don't know if missing the last two games of the season is enough to qualify for this award.

NFC South Leading MVP Candidates

• Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (+700)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: N/A
• New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr (+7500)
• Carolina Panthers: N/A

Kirk Cousins is fourth on the odds list amongst all players at +700. He got off to a strong start to his 2023 season and was on pace to throw for almost 5,000 yards, but he went down with an injury eight games into the season. Now with the Falcons, he has a great chance to bounce back on a new team.

The only other contender is Derek Carr, who would fall under the "comes back from poor performance" category of the award.

NFC West Leading MVP Candidates

• San Francisco 49ers: Dre Greenlaw (+12500)
• Seattle Seahawks: Sam Howell (+5000)
• Los Angeles Rams: N/A
• Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (+2800)

Kyler Murray is listed at +2800 to win the award, but considering he was hurt in the first half of the season and was healthy for the second half, would he still qualify for this award in 2024?

The only other strong option in the NFC West would be Sam Howell if he can win the starting gig with the Seahawks and bounce back from a lackluster 2023 campaign as the starting quarterback for the Washington Commanders.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.