NFL Divisional Round Upset Picks (Chiefs, Buccaneers Among Top Predictions)

Our editors share their favorite upset picks for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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There were three upsets in the NFL playoffs on Wild Card Weekend, and the BetSided team picked one of them -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Philadelphia Eagles -- a good start to this postseson.

This week, we're back with a pair of upset picks in the divisional round, as there are only a handful of games left in the season as a whole.

2023 Upset Picks Record:13-26 (-5.77 units)

There are two major spreads in the No. 1 seed games in the AFC and NFC, but the other matchups (Tampa Bay vs. Detroit and Kansas City vs. Buffalo) are expected to be much closer. How should we bet on underdogs this week?

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Best NFL Upset Picks for the Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs (+120) vs. Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has owned the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs, and he’s also dominated as an underdog in his career.

I love him and the Chiefs in this spot, as he is 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career, including an impressive 7-3 record striaght up.

Kansas City had the No. 2 scoring defense in the regular season, and the team showed it is built for the playoffs with a blowout win over Miami on Wild Card Weekend. While this is Mahomes' first true road playoff game, I have a hard time fading the two-time defending Super Bowl champion.

I’m worried about Josh Allen and the Bills turning the ball over – they had the seventh most in the league this season with 28 -- as that could completely flip this game in the Chiefs' favor.

These teams played an extremely close game in the regular season, but we've yet to see this Buffalo team take down Mahomes in the postseason. Until that happens, I'm taking the Chiefs every time. -- Peter Dewey

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+220) vs. Detroit Lions

Any team that has a defense as poor as the Detroit Lions is primed to be upset on any given weekend. The Lions managed to survive against the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round, but they gave up a blistering 7.7 yards per play and 9.4 yards per pass attempt in that game.

Those aren't sustainable numbers in the playoffs.

Now, they face another team that can attack their secondary in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We just saw Tampa Bay torch a weak pass defense in the Eagles and we know what the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can do.

If Baker Mayfield shows up with his "A" game, the Lions are a prime candidate to be upset, fresh off their first playoff win since 1991. -- Iain MacMillan


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.