NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds for Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, Jayden Daniels and More

Sportsbooks weigh in on who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Oct 21, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) celebrates a
Oct 21, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) celebrates a / Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
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Most people think it's a foregone conclusion USC quarterback Caleb Williams will be the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Oddsmakers certainly agree, making Williams the heavy-betting favorite to be picked No. 1.

That's all well and good. But there could be money to be made if there's a surprise. And if past drafts have taught us anything it's to expect the unexpected.

The Bears currently hold the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It remains to be seen if they'll trade the pick and continue to build around Justin Fields or if they'll trade Fields and start fresh with a new quarterback or, perhaps, they shock us all and pick a position player first.

Either way, this is sure to be entertaining, even if sportsbooks are all-in on Williams going No. 1.

NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds

As you can see in the odds, Williams is a heady favorite to be the first pick. -650 odds equates to an 86.7% probability he'll be picked first. That's no surprise given most draft gurus grade Williams at the same level they graded players like Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence. But that doesn't mean the Bears (or whoever drafts No. 1) will feel the same way.

UNC quarterback Drake Maye is the second betting favorite followed by Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and LSU QB and reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. After that, there's a big drop.

Harrison's odds are probably the most intriguing option. If the Bears decide to stick with Fields, Harrison is the type of generational playmaker who could help Fields (and the Bears) reach their full potential. Though if the Bears went that route, they may trade back to No. 2 or 3 and let Washington or New England pick their QB of the future at No. 1 while they still get their man.

At the end of the day, the 2024 NFL Draft odds are something I'm staying away from. Williams's odds are too short to make it worthwhile betting on him and I don't see anyone else going No. 1. Perhaps something happens between now and May that changes that (injury, personal issue, etc.), but the odds aren't intriguing enough for me to be interested in betting on them.

Let's wait to see what the odds are for the No. 2 pick before wagering on who will go No. 1. There's a lot more intrigue and opportunity there than at No. 1.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.