NFL Most Valuable Player Odds (Patrick Mahomes Leads Pack on QB-Heavy Board)
The summer is trickling toward the start of the National Football League season with training camps opening this week and the Hall of Fame Game just eight days away.
While there are plenty of ways to attack betting on the NFL between the posted game lines and team futures, betting on who will be the league’s Most Valuable Player is a popular bet among sports bettors looking to grab an elite player at a nice price before the season starts.
The MVP award has been dominated by quarterbacks for over a decade with Adrian Peterson (2012) being the last non-QB to win the award. So it’s no surprise the MVP odds board is dominated by signal-callers heading into the 2024-25 season.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes the Clear MVP Favorite
Futures on the Kansas City Chiefs are typically a good investment whether the bet is tied to team success or individual honors. Mahomes, a two-time MVP (2018, 2022), and the Chiefs are trying to make history as the first team to ever win three consecutive Super Bowls.
Mahomes is +475 ($100 bet wins $475) to be named MVP next season, which is an implied probability of 17.39%.
In 16 games last season, Mahomes actually threw for just 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns, his fewest marks in those categories since missing two games during the 2019 season. However, Mahomes is the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback in the NFL and Kansas City gave him a new weapon with its first-round pick a few months ago in speedy Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
The next closest on the odds board is Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud at a distant +850. As a rookie last season, Stroud took the league by storm in leading the Texans to an AFC South title and a postseason victory.
Stroud is ascending with a young Texans team and speaking of adding weapons, Houston revamped its dangerous offense by acquiring wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon.
Jordan Love Feeling the Love
Stroud is not the only ascending young quarterback as Green Bay’s Jordan Love is in the top-5 for the MVP award at +1400. Working with a young but talented supporting cast, Love shook off a tough start to his reign as the Packers’ starter, finishing the year with over 4,100 yards and 32 touchdowns before leading Green Bay to a first-round upset of the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson won his second MVP award last season after leading the Ravens to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Jackson threw for a career-high 3,678 yards last season and 24 touchdowns after back-to-back injury-plagued seasons. That success didn’t catapult Jackson to the top of the MVP odds board, though, as he’s tied with Love for the fifth-best odds at +1400.
CMC a Longshot to Make History
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is the first non-QB on the odds board, but it’s a distant +4000, which is an implied probability of just 2.44%.
To put the difficulty of a non-QB to win the MVP into perspective, McCaffrey’s odds are behind over half of the league’s starting quarterbacks (17) and in the range of middle-of-the-road quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, DeShaun Watson and Baker Mayfield.
MVP Odds Board
Here are the top-20 players on the MVP board with the regular season six weeks out.
- Patrick Mahomes: +475
- C.J. Stroud: +850
- Josh Allen: +900
- Joe Burrow: +900
- Jordan Love: +1400
- Lamar Jackson: +1400
- Jalen Hurts: +1500
- Aaron Rodgers: +1600
- Brock Purdy: +1600
- Dak Prescott: +1700
- Jared Goff: +2200
- Justin Herbert: +2200
- Tua Tagovailoa: +2500
- Anthony Richardson: +3000
- Trevor Lawrence: +3000
- Matthew Stafford: +3000
- Kirk Cousins: +3500
- Christian McCaffrey: +4000
- Kyler Murray: +5000
- Caleb Williams: +5000
Odds update periodically and are subject to change.