NFL MVP Odds Following Week 1: Tua Tagovailoa Makes Major Leap, Brock Purdy in Conversation?
By Peter Dewey
The MVP race has already seen some changes through Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.
Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa are tied atop the odds board, but there are some preseason contenders that got off to slow starts (Josh Allen, Joe Burrow) or are no longer in the mix due to injury (Aaron Rodgers).
It’s still way too early to declare an MVP, but the odds movement may show us some players that are trending up in Vegas.
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Here are the latest odds to win MVP this season:
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Tua Tagovailoa Tied With Patrick Mahomes to Win NFL MVP
After coming into the season at +2200 (!!) to win the league’s MVP award, Tagovailoa has jumped into a tie with Mahomes as the favorite at +700.
In Week 1, Tagovailoa led the Miami Dolphins to a comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers, throwing for 466 yards, three touchdowns and just one pick in the game.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has shown that he’s comfortable with Tagovailoa airing it out, as the quarterback led the NFL in yards gained per completion and pass attempt last season.
It’s going to be hard for Tua to put up these numbers on a weekly basis, but if he stays healthy he should have some of the best passing starts in the NFL.
Brock Purdy Surging in NFL MVP Odds
After being named the starter, Purdy had +4500 odds to win the league’s MVP award, but those have shrunk to +2500 after his Week 1 performance.
The former seventh-round pick was lights out against the Pittsburgh Steelers, completing 19 of his 29 pass attempts for 220 yards and two scores in a blowout win.
It was a great sign for the 49ers, who are now +850 to win the Super Bowl and my No. 1 team in this week’s NFL Power Rankings.
There is a path for Purdy to win MVP, as usually the team with the best record in the NFL has one of the top MVP candidates on its roster.
There is a concern that Purdy may not put up the passing stats that Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Tagovailoa or others do, but if the 49ers get the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the regular season, he could win the award.
For now, I’d consider a small wager on Purdy heading into Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.