NFL quarterback power rankings based on MVP odds for 2023 season

Each of the last 10 NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks. So, while other positions are technically eligible, this is a quarterback award. So, I’ll be ranking all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks based on MVP odds and within that exercise we could be able to find some value if I have a player rated much more highly than his odds reflect. 

Patrick Mahomes was the NFL’s MVP last season and followed that up with a Super Bowl MVP, so it’s no surprise that No. 15 for the Kansas City Chiefs is the favorite entering the 2023 season. With that being said, it’s hard to repeat, so maybe there’s some value further down the board. 

With Week 1 of the preseason in the books, we’ve gotten a decent look at a lot of these QBs and it feels like time for the first edition of the 2023 quarterback power rankings. 

1) Patrick Mahomes (+650)

Mahomes will be in the top spot of these rankings no matter what. This isn’t in pencil, or even pen, I’m etching this into stone. Mahomes is the guy, he’s on a tier all his own and even if he doesn’t repeat as MVP he’s still the unquestioned best quarterback in football. 

2) Joe Burrow (+800)

There are only two quarterbacks that have beaten Patrick Mahomes in a game that matters. Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Burrow nearly did it in the AFC Championship Game again last year and his Bengals look like they’ll be Kansas City’s primary antagonist for the foreseeable future. 

Burrow’s vision and deep ball accuracy make him special, and in the second half of last season he found a way to limit the number of sacks he takes while maintaining his ADOT which is nearly impossible. His mobility is underrated and keeps drives alive, Cincinnati just has to hope that he isn’t limited early in the year after a calf strain in training camp. 

3) Jalen Hurts (+1200)

Hurts was the MVP runner-up last year and if he had stayed healthy he would have won it. The Philadelphia offense doesn’t always ask much of Hurts as a thrower, but what he did in the Super Bowl officially sold me on him as an elite quarterback. 

He threw for 22 touchdowns in 15 games with just six interceptions and ran for 13 more scores. The threat of his legs and how that opens things up downfield and in the red zone for his receivers elevates him to No. 3. This is where I had him after last season and I haven’t wavered. 

4) Josh Allen (+800)

At the end of last year, I had Allen No. 5 on this list behind Justin Herbert, but I’m making the switch heading into this season. Allen’s elbow injury was serious last year and it clearly limited what he could do as a passer.

Buffalo’s 27-10 loss to the Bengals at home was completely uninspiring, but Allen was banged up and the Bills had the Damar Hamlin situation hovering over everything. Herbert is the better processor, but he doesn’t have a playoff win yet and Allen’s running ability puts him over the top for me.

5) Justin Herbert (+1200)

It’s still a paper thin margin between Allen and Herbert for me. He doesn’t have a playoff win and that hurts, but I’ll never forget his fourth-down heroics two years ago in the Week 18 win-or-go-home game against the Raiders.

I expect Kellen Moore to open things up for Herbert and the addition of Quentin Johnston is exciting. I can’t wait to see what this offense looks like and I could absolutely see Herbert winning his first MVP this year.

6) Trevor Lawrence (+1800)

Lawrence is who I have bet to win the MVP, because the value seems off. In the second half of last season he realized all of his potential. Six of his eight interceptions on the season came between Week 1 and Week 8, he only had two picks to 15 touchdowns from Week 9 on. The Jaguars went 7-2 over that stretch and Lawrence proved that he belongs in the conversation with all of the best QBs in football.

By the end of this season I expect Lawrence to be a top 3 QB only behind Mahomes and Burrow. 

7) Lamar Jackson (+1600)

We’re going to learn a lot about Lamar this season with Todd Monken taking over as offensive coordinator in Baltimore. Jackson has the OC that will let him throw and the wide receivers he’s wanted, so it’s time for him to have another MVP caliber season. I’m not certain he can.

8) Aaron Rodgers (+1600)

Rodgers turned 39 last season and statistically fell off a cliff after winning back-to-back MVPs. It’s impossible to come back from that cliff once you hit it as a quarterback, but he played most of the year with a broken thumb and didn’t have Davante Adams after he was traded to Las Vegas. I think it was a false alarm and the cliff hasn’t come, but we’ll find out quickly as the Jets have one of the hardest schedules in football the first six weeks.

9) Dak Prescott (+2500)

Dak had too many turnovers last season and he hasn’t been a threat with his legs in years. Add in his lack of elite arm strength and he has to be perfect as a processor, both pre and post-snap. He was in the Wild Card round and it turned into a 31-14 win over the Buccaneers with four touchdowns and 305 on 25/33 passing. The very next week he wasn’t perfect anymore. The Cowboys lost 19-12 and Dak went 23/37 for 206 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions.

Now, he’ll be forced to be perfect even more often with Mike McCarthy as OC. Aaron Rodgers even got tired of that responsibility, so we’ll see how Dak handles it.

10) Geno Smith (+4000)

This would be quite the leap for Geno, from Comeback Player of the Year to MVP, but he did finish ninth in MVP voting last season. He’s an aggressive downfield passer with the offensive line and weapons to make it work, but unlike his predecessor doesn’t disrupt the flow of the offense to take his shots.

I’m expecting another big year from Geno and I don’t know that his MVP odds are worth a bet, but Seahawks +220 to win the NFC West is a bet I love.

11) Matthew Stafford (+6000)

Health is the obvious concern here and it’s not going to be easy for Stafford to stay healthy behind a shaky offensive line in LA. Regardless, he’s a playmaker and a Super Bowl Champ, so I believe he deserves a spot just outside the top 10.

12) Deshaun Watson (+4000)

Watson to win MVP would be a very enticing bet if it wasn’t for his off the field issue. On the field, the question will be if he can return to the form we saw in Houston because in his six games last year he was terrible. 

The Browns will be running more of a spread system to accommodate their QB, but that could ultimately hurt the team because Nick Chubb is their best offensive player. 

13) Daniel Jones (+8000)

You’ll notice a theme here. I have little interest in a quarterback who provides nothing on the ground or out of structure (Kirk Cousins). Danny Dimes is a flawed quarterback, but he impressed me with his play against the Vikings in the playoffs and showed the ability to operate within structure, but also to create outside of it.

Brian Daboll really unlocked something with Jones and I’m interested to see where it goes this year.

14) Justin Fields (+2500)

Again, I want mobility. Fields is a popular MVP pick and it’s because of what he did as a runner last year. Now, he’s getting DJ Moore as his No. 1 receiver. Josh Allen broke out when he got Stefon Diggs, Jalen Hurts broke out with AJ Brown, maybe Fields is next. 

15) Kenny Pickett (+6000)

Pickett isn’t a traditional runner like Jones or Fields, but he’s mobile and he can create out of structure at the NFL level, something that wasn’t a certainty coming into last season. He showed so much poise at the end of games last year and looked very comfortable in his first preseason action. I expect a big Year 2 from Kenny, but not an MVP season.

16) Kyler Murray (+10000)

I’m not even sure when Murray will come back this season, but when he does return he’ll need to clean up a lot about his game before I believe in him. He can make plays with his legs and has a great arm, but his downfield passing was terrible last season and I’m not interested in a player who likes playing Call of Duty more than playing football. 

17) Tua Tagovailoa (+2200)

Tua’s MVP odds have almost nothing to do with Tua. They have everything to do with Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. Tua’s timing is his greatest strength and it allows him to operate McDaniel’s system, but teams like the 49ers and the Chargers took advantage of this by pressing his receivers and disrupting that timing. Tua’s arm isn’t strong enough to solve those problems out of structure, and it’s barely strong enough to capitalize on Hill and Waddle’s speed downfield. 

18) Derek Carr - (+5000)

Carr is an upgrade in New Orleans, so in that sense it was a good move by the Saints. However, I don’t see any world in which you can win a Super Bowl with Derek Carr, so like, what’s the point?

19) Brock Purdy (+5000)

Purdy is in the same situation as Tua. The offensive itself is better than he is as a quarterback. Purdy displayed some playmaking ability, so he’s an upgrade over Jimmy G, but I’m not sure by how much. 

20) Jared Goff (+4000)

Goff has been a good quarterback in Sean McVay’s system and now in Ben Johnson’s system. Those are two of the best play-callers in football and it’s only a matter of time before Johnson tires of Goff like McVay did.

21) Kirk Cousins (+5000)

A checkdown on fourth and eight with the season on the line tells me everything I already knew about Kirk Cousins. 

22) Russell Wilson (+4500)

Wilson’s mobility is gone, and without it he can’t succeed in the NFL. He’s never been able or willing to throw the ball over the middle of the field and win with accuracy on short passes, which is how Drew Brees dominated with Sean Payton. Payton will need to devise some new type of scheme to fix Russ, but I’m not sure one exists. At least not one that will get him back into an MVP conversation.

23) Jordan Love (+5000)

Honestly, who knows, but the Packers seem to believe in him and that organization knows a thing or two about developing quarterbacks. 

24) Mac Jones (+10000)

I’m not sure Mac Jones was ever capable of a Year 2 jump, but not having an offensive coordinator made sure it didn’t come. 

25) Ryan Tannehill (+12500)

The Titans were so tired of Ryan Tannehill that they went out and drafted quarterbacks in the last two drafts including Will Levis, the next Ryan Tannehill. 

26) Anthony Richardson (+15000)

Richardson will be a bit of a project as a passer, but he’s a unique physical specimen and his legs alone will give Indy a competent offense. 

27) Jimmy Garoppolo – (+10000)

If Jimmy couldn't get it done with Kyle Shanahan then I don’t think he’ll figure it out with Josh McDaniels. He’s also only started more than 10 games twice in his career and he’s entering his age 32 season. 

28) Bryce Young (+15000)

Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray; short quarterbacks have had some success in the NFL, but we’re going to find out how far we can push that. 

29) CJ Stroud (+15000)

If CJ Stroud the statuesque pocket-passer that we watched at Ohio State for his entire career, or the athletic playmaker we saw in the College Football Playoff against Georgia. If he’s the former, no thank you, but if he uses his legs and can make plays out of structure I might be in.

30) Desmond Ridder (+15000)

If Arthur Smith can make Ryan Tannehill successful then why can’t he drag Ridder to the playoffs? There’s certainly enough talent around him on that offense in Atlanta.

31) Sam Howell (+12500)

He looked interesting against the Cowboys in Week 18 last year, and at least we don’t have to watch Carson Wentz anymore. I respect Washington for taking the chance and seeing what they have, but ultimately the answer will probably be, not very much. Jacoby Brissett is the best quarterback on the roster. 

32) Baker Mayfield – (+15000)

The guy might lose his job to Kyle Trask. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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