There are just a handful of games remaining in the NFL season, and we’ve guaranteed ourselves an over .500 record in our season-long spread picks.
A 4-2 showing on Wild Card Weekend pushed us to 10 games over .500 with just seven to go, but let’s see if we can push that winning percentage even higher in the divisional round.
- Wild Card Weekend Record: 4-2
- Season Record: 142-132-4
I love multiple underdogs this week, as we have some larger spreads after the upsets on Wild Card Weekend. Let’s keep the playoff momentum going with this week’s four plays:
For more divisional round picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans +9.5
The Baltimore Ravens are heavily favored against CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans, but it may be too many points.
Houston has dominated as an underdog this season, going 7-3 against the spread overall and 4-1 as road dog in 2023.
While Baltimore is 5-3 ATS as a home favorite, asking the team to win this game – against a high-powered offense – by 10 or more is pushing it.
The Ravens want to win this game with defense (they have the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL), so this may not end up being the blowout oddsmakers are expecting.
After watching Houston torch a strong Cleveland defense, I think Stroud and company can keep this game close.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -10
I’m extremely worried about Green Bay’s defense in this game, as the team slipped to 20th in the NFL in yards per play allowed and still gave up over 30 points in a win over Dallas on Wild Card Weekend.
The Packers will not be able to get away with that against San Francisco.
With the 49ers starters playing, the team finished the 2023 regular season with seven wins by double digits in their last nine games. The team lost the two other games, including a meaningless matchup in Week 18.
San Francisco was just 3-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, but the team won those games by an average margin of 8.1 point per game.
Even with Green Bay’s offense humming, I’m worried the team won’t be able to keep up if its defense doesn’t get stops. There is a major gap on defense, as the 49ers allowed just 5.0 yards per play this season, good for ninth in the NFL.
I like them to cover here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers +6
The best team in the NFL as an underdog this season?
You guessed it, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After winning outright as an underdog on Wild Card Weekend, Tampa Bay is now 9-3 against the spread as a dog this season.
While the Lions have been dominant at home – 7-2 straight up – this is a lot of points to give Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, who showed that they can really move the ball against a weak pass defense in the game against Philly.
Well, they’re in luck, because the Lions ranked 30th in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed this season.
Detroit may end up winning, but the team didn’t cover as a favorite last week. Give me the Bucs, who are getting nearly a touchdown on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs +2.5
This is Patrick Mahomes’ first true road playoff game, but it comes against a team he’s dominated in the postseason in his NFL career.
Plus, this is one of the rare times that we get to see Mahomes and the Chiefs as underdogs.
In 10 games as an underdog in his career, Mahomes is an impressive 8-1-1 against the spread.
I think Kansas City is live to pull off the upset in this game, but the team will at least keep things close. KC ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense, and the Bills have had issues with turnovers (28 in the regular season) all season long.
Buffalo is just 5-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. I love Mahomes getting points whenever we can take it.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.