Through two thirds of the 2023 NFL season, we’re still hitting over 50 percent of our NFL spread picks after going 8-8 in Week 13.
Week 13 is the last major bye week of the 2023 season, as six teams (the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) all won’t play this week.
With 13 games taking place in Week 13, we want to go at least 7-6 (or better) to head into Week 14.
- Week 12 Record: 8-8
- Season Record: 93-84-1
For more Week 13 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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Here is who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 13:
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys Spread Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -8.5
Dallas is a perfect 5-0 against the spread as a home favorite this season, and the team is getting a banged up Seattle team that could be without running back Kennethh Walker III.
Seattle has struggled against elite competition, losing to the Cincinnati Bengals (with Joe Burrow), Los Angeles Rams (with Matthew Stafford) and San Francisco 49ers in recent weeks. I don’t know if this team (2-2 ATS as a road dog) can cover in Dallas.
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Broncos +3.5
Denver has been terrific, winning five straight games on the strength of its defense (21 or fewer points allowed in each game since Oct. 8).
After beating the Cleveland Browns by 17 in Week 12, I’m confident in taking Denver to cover against a young Houston team that has had some turnover issues in recent weeks. The Texans are 0-3 ATS as home favorites this season.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Chargers -6
I’ll probably regret laying this many points with the Chargers, but the Patriots just lost outright to the New York Giants and Tommy DeVito.
Los Angeles needs a win to save its season, and I think New England’s poor quarterback play won’t take advantage of this weak Chargers defense.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Pick
- Pick: Cardinals +5.5
While I think Pittsburgh wins this game, the Steelers have outgained just one team all season. That makes it tough for them to blow out opponents.
With this spread creeping towards a touchdown, I think Kyler Murray and Arizona can hang around on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Spread Pick
- Pick: Titans +2
The Tennessee Titans won in Week 12 by riding Derrick Henry on the ground, and I think they do the same against a weak Colts run defense.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, which could slow down this Indy offense. The Titans are also 3-0 ATS as home dogs this season.
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Pick
- Pick: Lions -4
After once possessing an elite defense, the Saints have slipped to No. 17 in yards per play allowed this season. Detroit, on the other hand, is No. 4 in yards per play on offense.
I think the Lions (3-0 ATS as road favorite) are the play against a Saints team that is just 2-8-1 ATS this season.
Atlanta Falcons vs.New York Jets Spread Pick
- Pick: Falcons -2.5
The New York Jets can’t score the football (50 total points over the last five weeks), so I have a hard time trusting them inside a field goal in this game.
New York hasn’t covered the spread since its upset win over the Eagles on Oct. 15.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Spread Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -9.5
A few trends to look at:
- The Dolphins are 2-0 ATS as road favorites
- The Commanders are 0-1-1 as home dogs
- Teams are 1-8 ATS after playing Dallas (Washington this week)
I think the Miami offense feasts on a Commanders team that has allowed the most points in the NFL this season.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread Pick
- Pick: Panthers +5.5
I can’t believe I’m taking another shot on Carolina, but maybe the firing of Frank Reich lights a fire under this team.
Tampa Bay’s offense also may be limited in this game with Baker Mayfield (ankle) dealing with an injury.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles +2.5
I don’t agree with the 49ers being favored on the road in this game, so I’ll take the Eagles to cover – and likely win outright.
Philly is 12-2 at home in the regular season the last two years, and I think the team is undervalued after huge wins against Kansas City and Buffalo the last two weeks.
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams Spread Pick
- Pick: Browns +5
Cleveland may not win this game, but the team still has an elite pass defense that may be able to keep this one close.
The Rams are also just 1-2 ATS as home favorites this season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -6.5
Kansas City is an impressive 7-4 against the spread this season, and I’m selling the Packers fresh off a Thanksgiving Day win.
Green Bay now has to face the No. 6 defense in the NFL a week after facing the No. 20 defense. Sure, the win over the Lions was big, but Dan Campbell also helped the Packers out with some questionable fourth-down calls.
I love the Chiefs to win by a touchdown or more this week.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -8.5
Jacksonville is 8-3 against the spread this season, and the team is going to make things tough on Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Joe Mixon had just eight carries for 16 yards last week, and now he has to face a top-10 run defense in Week 13. I can’t see Cincy putting up enough points – on the road – to keep this game within nine points.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.