We’ve reached the home stretch (the final five weeks) of picking an against the spread winner for every NFL game this season, and somewho, we’re still over .500 with this season’s picks.
Not too bad!
- Week 13 Record: 5-6-1
- Season Record: 98-89-2
This is the final week of the 2023 regular season with byes in it – the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals won’t play this week – which means we have 15 games in action.
We’re in need of a big week in these spread picks to guarantee a season over .500, so why not this week?
For more Week 14 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 14.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $150 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game and their team wins!
Here's who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 14:
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Pick
- Pick: Patriots +6
This may seem crazy, as the Patriots have scored just 13 points in the last three weeks (including zero in Week 13), but the team’s defense has been great.
New England has allowed 10 or fewer points in three straight games, yet it has lost all of those matchups. I think the team can over a near-touchdown spread with Steelers backup Mitch Trubisky set to be under center.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
The Atlanta Falcons beat an abysmal New York Jets offense by just five points (13-8) in Week 13, and I think they’ll struggle to dominate a much more talented Tampa Bay team.
The Bucs are 7-5 against the spread this season while Atlanta is just 4-8, including 1-4 as a home favorite.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals Spread Pick
- Pick: Colts -1.5
I just can’t get behind the Bengals against a Colts team that is in the top half of the league in both yards per play on offense and opponent yards per play on defense.
Cincy ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season and in the bottom 10 in yards per play on offense. I'm also not sold on us getting another great showing from Jake Browning this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars +3
Jacksonville entered Week 13 with the best against the spread record in the NFL, and it gets to take on a Cleveland team that doesn't have an identity at quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence's injury muddles this game, but the Jaguars have moved six points because of this. I think that's the time to jump on the team. I'm taking a page from my cowworker Iain McMillan's book and underreacting.
After the Browns defense got crushed by the Los Angeles Rams in Week 13, I’m willing to fade Cleveland in Week 14.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans -6.5
The New York Jets defense is elite, but the team has scored just 58 points in the last six weeks. As a home underdog, the Jets are just 3-4 ATS on the season.
I expect Houston’s high-powered offense to be too much to handle in Week 14.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams +7
Baltimore probably wins this game, but the Rams have a good enough offense – when healthy – to hang around.
Since Kyren Williams returned, the Rams have scored 37 and 36 points in back-to-back weeks. Baltimore has been solid as a home favorite (4-2 ATS this season), but this feels like a few too many points.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Spread Pick
- Pick: Lions -3.5
Detroit has been money as a road favorite, improving to 4-0 ATS with a five-point road win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 13.
I think the team doesn’t take the Bears as lightly as it did at home earlier this season. Chicago is just 1-1-1 ATS as a home dog in 2023.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Pick
- Pick: Panthers +5
I backed the Panthers to cover last week, and they came through, so why not do it again?
The Saints may be starting a backup quarterback in this game, and they have been awful against the spread this season going 2-9-1 overall and 0-4 as a home favorite.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Vegas Raiders Spread Pick
- Pick: Vikings -3
I can’t trust a Raiders team that is bottom 10 in the NFL in both opponent yards per play allowed and yards per play gained on offense.
Minnesota – for what it’s worth – is a perfect 2-0 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -10.5
Think this is too many points in a division rivalry game?
Well, since the bye Week the 49ers have wins by 31 over the Jacksonville Jaguars, 13 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 18 (on the road) against these Seahawks and 23 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Laying the 10.5 is a no-brainer for me this week.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Spread Pick
- Pick: Broncos +3
I’m still in on this Denver team, as it has played well over the last six to seven weeks to move to 6-6 on the season.
Meanwhile, the Chargers mustered just six points in Week 13 in a win over the lowly New England Patriots. I don’t trust them to cover the number against a much more competent offense in Week 14.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills +2.5
I am seriously worried about the Chiefs going up against a Buffalo team that has a +101 point differential this season.
Kansas City is 3-2 against the spread as a home favorite, but the team’s offense has fallen off this season. If the Bills – like the Packers this past week – can score 20+ points, I’m worried about Kansas City winning in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles +3.5
The Dallas Cowboys have zero (yes, zero) wins against teams over .500 this season.
Maybe Philly doesn’t win, but I love taking the team to keep this matchup within a field goal.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Spread Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -13.5
If there’s one thing the Dolphins know how to do, it’s beat bad teams at home.
Miami has a 4-1 ATS record as a home favorite with an average margin of victory in those games of 21.4 points!
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Spread Pick
- Pick: Packers -6.5
The Green Bay Packers now rank 13th in the NFL in yards per play on offense and 15th in yards per play allowed.
The Giants? Well, they’re 32nd and 28th in those categories. Plus, New York is averaging a margin of defeat of 10.8 points per game as a home dog this season.
I’ll roll with a red hot Jordan Love on Monday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.