Is there a better way to celebrate the holiday season than a handful of games on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in the NFL?
That’s what we have this week, and I have a pick against the spread for every single one of them, as we continue the quest to pick every game this season and stay at least above .500.
A nightmare showing in the early portion of the week was nearly salvaged in the 4 p.m. slate, but the Philadelphia Eagles’ loss on Monday Night Football sealed a week with an under .500 record.
- Week 15 Record: 7-9
- Season Record: 111-104-3
There are 16 more games to bet in Week 16, and just 48 to go in the regular season. Can I get hot this week?
For more Week 16 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 16.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $150 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game and their team wins!
Here's who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 16:
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams -4
The Saints are one of the worst teams against the spread this season, going 4-9-1, and they are just 1-5 against teams .500 or better.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS as a home favorite and 8-5-1 ATS overall. The Rams offense has been on fire since Kyren Williams returned, and I expect more of the same on Thursday night.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Pick
- Pick: Bengals -2.5
Jake Browning has led the Bengals to three wins in a row, and now the team gets a matchup with the struggling Steelers.
Pittsburgh is expected to start Mason Rudolph, and it has outright losses to Arizona, New England and Indianapolis the last three weeks. I think Cincy can win this game by a field goal or more.
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -10.5
Not only are the Chargers just 5-9 against the spread this season, but they looked horrendous in Week 15, losing 63-21 to the Las Vegas Raiders.
The team is in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and the Buffalo Bills should be able to score at will after they dominated a strong Dallas defense in Week 15. It’s a big number, but with Easton Stick under center for the Chargers, Buffalo should cover this number.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Spread Pick
- Pick: Browns +2.5
I think the Browns are live to win this game against a Houston team that has struggled on offense in recent weeks. Cleveland is an elite pass defense and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
I would love to get this at 3, but the Browns (9-5) are showing they can win no matter who is under center. I am selling high on this Houston team that struggled against a strong Jets defense in Week 14 even with CJ Stroud under center.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets Spread Pick
- Pick: Commanders +3
I can’t trust the Jets to cover this number.
The team was shut out in Week 15, and I don’t see Aaron Rodgers playing with the team eliminated from playoff contetion.
Maybe he does, but if not, New York is far from a guarantee to score enough to cover a field goal against Washington.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans Spread Pick
- Pick: Titans +2.5
Tennessee is an impressive 3-1 ATS as a home dog this season, and while I don’t know if the team can win this game at home, it may be a little undervalued against Seattle.
The Seahawks had lost four straight before upsetting the Eagles on Monday night in Week 15. I’m not ready to back them this quickly as road favorites – at least when it comes to covering the number.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Spread Pick
- Pick: Colts -2.5
The Falcons are one of the worst ATS teams in th NFL, going 4-10 through 14 games.
Meanwhile, the Colts are 9-5 against the spread and thriving on offense even with Jonathan Taylor out. I am fading Atlanta after it lost outright to Carolina in Week 15.
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Spread Pick
- Pick: Packers -5.5
The Panthers may have won against the Falcons last week, but they’re still just 3-9-2 against the spread on the season.
Green Bay’s offense is explosive enough to beat this Carolina team that has struggled mightily to stop the run in 2023.
With the Packers’ playoff hopes on the line, I’ll back them to cover the number as a road favorite.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick
- Pick: Lions -3
Detroit is one of the best teams in the NFL as a road favorite this season, going 4-1 ATS, and it find itself back in that spot against the Vikings.
Nick Mullens is expected to start for Minnesota, and the team lost to Jake Browning in Week 15. I’ll gladly lay just a field goal on the Lions after they had an offensive resurgence against the Broncos last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread Pick
- Pick: Bucs +1
I’m fading this Jacksonville team, as the Jaguars are now No. 28 in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Tampa Bay has won three straight games, but there are some trends that aren’t in our favor. Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS as a home dog, and the Jaguars are 3-0 ATS as road favorites.
Still, I have a hard time getting behind the Jaguars given how poorly they’ve played the last three weeks.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears Spread Pick
- Pick: Cardinals +4
Arizona may win this game outright, as Chicago loves to blow leads late in games.
The Bears are also just 0-1-1 ATS as home favorites this season, and I don’t think the team will be able to take advantage of Arizona’s poor defense.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Spread Pick
- Pick: Cowboys +1.5
This one is pretty simple: Miami is 0-3 straight up against teams that are over .500 this season.
Wtih Tyreek Hill banged up, I think Dallas’ defense could make things tough on Mike McDaniel’s squad. I will fade the Dolphins against contenders until they prove they can win one.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick
- Pick: Broncos -6.5
I’ll lay the points with Denver here, as the team ranks No. 5 in turnovers forced this season.
The Patriots have been prone to turning the ball over, and the team was back to struggling to score in Week 15 against the Chiefs.
Denver also needs this game to stay in the playoff race, so I don’t think Sean Payton holds back – even if the team leads.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -10
The Chiefs went down early against the Raiders in their first meeting before eventually blowing them out on the road.
Patrick Mahomes doesn’t lose against the AFC West, and I think the Chiefs make a statement at home in Week 16.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick
- Pick: Giants +10.5
The Eagles have not won a game in December, and their offense hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it was in 2022.
While the Giants took a step back in Week 15, I think they can hang around in this game if they can establish the run.
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens +5.5
Baltimore is 9-5 ATS on the season and covered in its lone game as an underdog.
Lamar Jackson has been money as a dog in his career, going 11-2 ATS in 13 games.
I think Baltimore’s defense (No. 1 in yards per play allowed) is being a little undervalued in this game.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.