NFL Spread Picks for Every Game in Week 18 (Rams, Bills Among Top Predictions)
By Peter Dewey
With just one week left in the regular season, I’m just above .500 in my weekly spread picks, and we’ll need a strong Week 18 to stay there.
Week 18 is extremely tough for bettors, as there is a lack of motivation for many teams with players sitting to rest for the playoffs and a good chunk of the league already eliminated.
How does it factor into our bets this week? I’m still making a pick for every game, but it may be tougher than usual to figure out who is truly looking to win.
- Week 17 Record: 8-7-1
- Season Record: 128-124-4
For more Week 18 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens +4
While I do think the Steelers win this game because Baltimore is likely to sit players at some point with the No. 1 seed locked up, this is a lot of points to lay on the road.
Baltimore is 5-3 ATS this season at home, and we’ve seen backup quarterback Tyler Huntley fill in well for Lamar Jackson in the past.
Don’t be shocked if the Ravens hang around – even if they play their backups.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans +1
I think Houston is live for the short upset here – thanks to it’s No. 2 run defense.
Also, the Texans are an impressive 4-1 ATS as road dogs this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Spread Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers -5.5
This is the ultimate motivation spot for the Bucs, who need a win to win the NFC South.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are just 4-10-2 ATS this season and were shut out in Week 17. I’ll fade them one last time in the regular season.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Spread Pick
- Pick: Browns +6
Cincinnati technically has nothing to play for, and both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have been banged up. Who says they don’t sit in Week 18?
The Browns are also an impressive 10-5-1 ATS this season.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick
- Pick: Lions -5.5
The Vikings’ quarterback situation is a nightmare, and the team is nearly eliminated from playoff contention entering Week 18. I’ll roll with the Lions to get a feel good win at home where they are 4-3 ATS as favorites.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Patriots -2.5
This game doesn’t matter for either team, but the Jets are a brutal 1-4 ATS as road dogs.
I’ll take the Pats at home even though they have just one win in Foxborough this season.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Pick
- Pick: Saints -3.5
Both of these teams have been bad against the spread all season, but I like the Saints coming off a win on the road against Tampa Bay.
Atlanta lost to Chicago – and while it could still make the playoffs – I don’t see the team picking up the upset on the road where it is 1-2 ATS as a dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Spread Pick
- Pick: Titans +5.5
I don’t think Tennessee plays spoiler, but the team is an elite home dog this season, going 3-1-1 against the spread.
The Jaguars have been a mess against everyone but the Panthers since the start of December, so laying 5.5 points isn’t exactly inviting.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Spread Pick
- Pick: Cardinals +3
Arizona is 4-3 ATS as a home dog this season, and the team upset the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17.
Don’t sleep on Kyler Murray keeping his team in it and trying to prevent a division rival from getting a playoff spot.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Spread Pick
- Pick: Broncos +2.5
Meaningless game between two middle of the pack teams. I’ll take the points, as Denver may be looking to see if Jarrett Stidham could be a quarterback – at least a bridge QB – that plays for the team in 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles -5
I’ll reluctantly back the Eagles here at a reduced number as they need a win and a Dallas loss to win the NFC East.
New York has been frisky as a home dog (4-2-1 ATS), but the team is losing those games by an average margin of 7.6 points per game.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Pick
- Pick: Bears +3
Justin Fields has been balling, and he is auditioning for a new job potentially next season. Meanwhile, Green Bay only beat the Panthers by three points in Week 16 before beating a quarterback-less Minnesota team last week.
I’ll take the Bears to keep this close with a chance to knock Green Bay out of the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs +2
Easton Stick vs. Blaine Gabbert?
Give me the points, I guess.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams +3.5
This game has no meaning to San Fran – who won’t have Christian McCaffrey and already has the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
However, the Rams could get the No. 6 seed with a win and avoid Philly or Dallas in the first round.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Spread Pick
- Pick: Dallas -13
Washington has gotten trounced week in and week out, allowing the most points in the NFL.
Dallas should be going all out in this game, as a win secures the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -3
Miami is down Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard against an offense that scored 48 points against it the first time these teams played this season.
Miami is 1-4 SU against teams over .500, and I don’t see the team pulling off the upset – even with the AFC East on the line.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.