Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, and yours truly went over .500 in spread picks for the first 16 games of the season.
It was close, but we’ll take any week where we can win more than we lose.
- Week 1 Record: 9-7
- Season Record: 9-7
In Week 2, there isn’t a single double-digit spread on the slate (there was one in Week 1), so we’ll need some close games for some of the underdogs to cover.
Dogs went wild in Week 1, as did road teams…
That’s not going to stop me from looking to be better than I was in Week 1.
For more Week 2 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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Here’s who I see covering in each game in Week 2:
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles -7
I’m willing to lay a touchdown with Philly in its home opener a season after going to the Super Bowl. It’s going to be crazy at Lincoln Financial Field, and Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings are coming off a home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I don’t see them coming into a hostile environment – on a short week – and taking down a superior team. I like Philly to win this going away.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills Spread Pick
- Pick: Raiders +9
This is wayyyy too many points to give a Las Vegas Raiders team that looked good in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 16-7 straight up and 18-5 against the spread as an underdog in his career, and I think he keeps the Raiders in this game. Josh Allen struggled with turnovers in Week 1 and now is on a short week with a lot of pressure to win.
Buffalo may take the game, but I think Vegas covers.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens +3
Want a crazy stat? The Ravens are 18-3-1 against the spread in their last 22 games as underdogs. Now, they are dogs against a Cincy team that mustered three total points in Week 1?
Give me Lamar Jackson and company.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars +3
I do think the Chiefs win this game, but they are just 16-18 ATS as road favorites in the Patrick Mahomes era. With Travis Kelce’s status still up in the air for Week 2, I don’t mind taking the field goal with the Jags at home.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans Spread Pick
- Pick: Chargers -3
I don’t believe in this Titans team that failed to score a touchdown in Week 1.
Sure, Tennessee covered for us last week, but that was against an Alvin Kamara-less Saints offense. The Chargers put up 34 points in Week 1 and ran for over 230 yards. They should dominate Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons Spread Pick
- Pick: Packers -1
I’m not sold on Desmond Ridder at quarterback, and the Packers held all Chicago Bears running backs to 4.0 yards per carry or less last week.
If Atlanta tries to win on the ground, I think it may be tough sledding for the team offensively.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick
- Pick: Lions -5.5
There is nobody better against the spread over the last two seasons than the Detroit Lions.
- Since 2021: 24-11 ATS overall, 3-1 ATS as home favorites
Dan Campbell’s team is coming off a huge win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead, and now they’re rested entering a matchup with a Seattle team that fell flat at home in Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans +1.5
I did pick the Colts to win this game in my straight up picks this week, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this is an extremely close contest. Because of that, I’ll take the points with the Texans in a game where the total is already below 40.
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread Pick
- Pick: Bears +3
I have the Bears winning this game outright in my straight up picks, and I’m far from sold on Baker Mayfield’s Week 1 performance.
The Bucs averaged 3.6 yards per play to Minnesota’s 5.9, and Tampa went just 6-for-17 on third down. Chicago should at least hang around in this game.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -8
San Francisco may be the best team in the NFL.
Brock Purdy was lights out in Week 1 and the 49ers have so many weapons on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Rams are down Cooper Kupp and are dogs in a second straight division game.
Remember, Sean McVay is just 3-9 SU against Kyle Shanahan in his coaching career.
Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick
- Pick: Commanders +3.5
Did we watch the Denver offense last week?
The Broncos scored just 17 points and Russell Wilson completed 27 passes for just 177 yards. The Broncos may be incapable of blowing anyone out, so I’ll gladly take more than a field goal for the Commanders on Sunday.
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals Spread Pick
- Pick: Cardinals +5
The Giants were a disaster in Week 1, losing 40-0, and I’m not sold on them just dominating a bad Arizona team in Week 2.
The Cardinals covered in Week 1 on the road, and now the team is at home where it went 3-3 ATS as a dog last season.
New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys Spread Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -8.5
There is no way I’m trusting Zach Wilson on a short week against a team that won 40-0 the week before.
Not a chance. It’s Dallas.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Patriots +2.5
I’m going to zig on the Dolphins when everyone else is zagging.
Miami allowed 234 rushing yards in Week 1 and barely came away with an upset win over a Chargers defense that really struggled.
Bill Belichick’s defense played well against the Philadelphia Eagles, and I wouldn't be shocked to see New England win this game outright at home.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Spread Pick
- Pick: Panthers +3.5
Carolina failed to cover on the road last week, but the team was 5-1 against the spread as home dog last season.
New Orleans was not great in Week 1, allowing the Tennessee Titans to hang around, so I’ll take a shot on the Panthers as 3.5-point dogs in Week 2.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Pick
- Pick: Browns -2
Kenny Pickett was awful for the Steelers in Week 1, and now he has to take on the defense that held Joe Burrow to three points on Sunday.
Oh, and Diontae Johnson is out with a hamstring injury. This is Browns or nothing for me.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.