There were three moneyline upsets on Wild Card Weekend in the NFL, and unfortunately for yours truly, I only picked one of them correctly.
Still, a 3-3 week is nothing to scoff at with so much turnover in the NFL, and we have a few larger spreads to dive into for the divisional round’s four matchups this week.
- Wild Card Weekend Record: 3-3
- Season Long Record: 167-111
With both No. 1 seeds in action this week, can we go a clean 4-0 entering the NFC and AFC title games? That’s the goal. Let’s dive into this week’s picks:
For more NFL Divisional Round picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -425
I actually think this game could be a lot closer than the spread suggests, but Baltimore is the superior team – with a rest advantage – and should win on Saturday.
Houston turned Joe Flacco over on multiple occasions on Wild Card Weekend, but that won’t be as easy against Baltimore, who turned the ball over just 19 times in the regular season. Houston was the best team in that statistic (posting just 14 total turnovers), but the team doesn’t have nearly as impressive of a defense as Baltimore.
The Ravens ranked No. 1 in the scoring defense, yards per play allowed and turnovers forced in the regular season. I think this defense has been underrated for quite some time, and it could be the difference for the team’s playoff run.
With Mark Andrews likely returning to Baltimore’s offense, I think this team just has too many weapons for Houston to beat it in Baltimore. The Ravens were 6-3 at home in the regular season.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -470
Green Bay’s magic is going to come to an end on Saturday against the Super Bowl favorite – the San Francisco 49ers.
While Green Bay torched Dallas’ defense on Wild Card Weekend, let’s not forget that the team benefited greatly from turnovers before also giving up quite a few points of its own.
San Francisco was No. 6 in the NFL in turnovers this season, and the team has even more talent on offense than Dallas. Green Bay’s defense struggled down the stretch of the regular season, finishing 20th in the league in yards per play allowed.
While Jordan Love has been terrific since the team’s bye week, I don’t think Green Bay has the ability on defense to stop the 49ers consistently. San Francisco was 5-3 at home in the regular season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Lions -250
Another chalky pick, but a necessary one on a Detroit team that is 7-2 at home this season.
Tampa Bay beat up on the struggling Philadelphia Eagles on Wild Card Weekend, but the Lions are a much different animal. Philly’s offense has been dreadful to end the season, but now Tampa Bay has to face a team that ranked No. 4 in the NFL in yards per play and No. 5 in points during the regular season.
Baker Mayfield and company have been impressive to close the season – and in the playoffs – as the NFC South winners, but don’t forget this team struggled with New Orleans and Carolina in Weeks 17 and 18.
I’m not putting too much stock into the Bucs dominating an Eagles team that was already dead in the water. Give me Detroit to stay alive at home, where it has been one of the best teams in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs +120
You want an upset pick? You got an upset pick.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has owned the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs, and he’s also dominated as an underdog in his career.
Where does he find himself this week? As an underdog against the Buffalo Bills. How fitting.
Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS as a dog in his career, but this is his first true road playoff game, so that is something to be wary of.
Still, Kansas City had the No. 2 scoring defense in the regular season, and the team showed it is built for the playoffs with a blowout win over Miami on Wild Card Weekend.
I’m worried about Josh Allen the Bills turning the ball over – they had the seventh most in the league this season with 28 – and allowing Mahomes and company to flip this game.
Until the Bills get over the hump and beat the Chiefs in a playoff game, I’m taking Mahomes here every time.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.