NFL Straight Up Picks for Every Game on Wild Card Weekend (Chiefs, Rams Among Top Bets)

As the NFL regular season gives way to the playoffs and Wild Card Weekend, our straight-up picks are … no going anywhere!

Week 18 was one of the best weeks of the season, which is shocking considering how many key players sat out, as we went 11-5. That got us to the 60 percent clip on picking winners this season, and the playoffs give us a chance to add to that record. 

• Week 18 Record: 11-5
• Season Long Record: 164-108

I’ve set out to pick the straight up winner in every NFL game this season, so why stop now? 

For more NFL Wild Card Weekend picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!

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Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Moneyline Pick

• Pick: Browns -142

I love Cleveland in this spot, especially since the team was able to rest several key players in Week 18. 

Houston won the AFC South with Jacksonville collapsing, but the team doesn’t have much playoff experience. At quarterback, that’s been an issue in the past – even if CJ Stroud is putting together one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen in a long time. 

Cleveland has leaned on its elite defense all season, and I think that's the difference in this game. The Browns rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed while the Texans slot in at No. 15. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Pick

• Pick: Chiefs -185

The Chiefs are elite in the playoffs to bet on under Patrick Mahomes and they’re taking on a Miami Dolphins team that is a straight up fraud this season. 

Miami blew the AFC East, and the team is just 1-5 all season against teams over .500, including a loss to these Chiefs. 

Patrick Mahomes and company will get it done at home, where they are 10-2 in his playoff career. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Moneyline Pick

• Pick: Bills -485

The Cinderella run for the Steelers (can we call it that?) comes to an end in the playoffs.

Mason Rudolph has led the team to three straight wins, but the Buffalo Bills may be the hottest team in football. Buffalo is elite at home in the playoffs under Josh Allen’s watch, going 4-1 in five games. 

Pittsburgh has skated by all season long, but even Mike Tomlin isn’t going to be able to win them this game. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Moneyline Pick

• Pick: Cowboys -345

I nearly took the Packers, but the Cowboys’ dominance at home is real this season. 

Dallas went a perfect 8-0 at home in the 2023 season, and the team was 6-2 ATS as a home favorite. 

While the Packers have played well enough to get here, I’m worried about Love in his first playoff start against an opportunistic defense that ranked 12th in turnovers forced this season.  

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Pick

• Pick: Rams +145

Upset!

I am not sold on Dan Campbell’s Lions in this game, and I think the experience of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay may be slept on. 

Los Angeles won seven of its final eight games, and the team jumped into the top 10 in the NFL in net yards per play for the season. 

The same can’t be said for the Lions, and I’m worried about Detroit’s defense (allowing the fourth most net yards per pass attempt) against a high-powered Rams passing attack. 

Give me Stafford to upset his former team. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline Pick

• Pick: Buccaneers +130

This is by far the riskiest pick I’m taking, but I just can’t get behind this Eagles team after it closed the season about as bad as a team could. 

Tampa Bay is not a great team, but the Buccaneers can throw the ball down the field, and they’re facing the defense that allowed the second most passing yards and touchdowns in the NFL this season.

Maybe Jalen Hurts and company find the magic from last season, but it’s been gone for a while. I love taking a home dog on Monday night to close the week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.