There's nothing more American than eating Turkey and watching NFL on Thanksgiving Day.
Now, with the beautiful act of sports betting, we can wager on these games as well. It's a holiday, so we're going to have some fun with Thursday's games and cook up a little parlay that crosses all three games that includes both a prop bet and a spread bet for each game.
I made this parlay over at FanDuel Sportsbook so if you want to join me on this, make sure to click the link below to sign up for an account. If you do, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins!
Thanksgiving Day NFL Parlay
- Packers +7.5
- Jared Goff UNDER 255.5 passing yards
- Cowboys -12.5
- Brian Robinson OVER 41.5 rushing yards
- 49ers -7
- Zach Charbonnet anytime TD
I think the Packers are better than their record indicates. They're 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.1 and ninth in Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.7). What should concern Lions fans the most is they rank ninth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.2) as their secondary has been stingy.
I set the Lions as a 6.5-point favorite so we're getting a point of value on this line that crosses the key numbers of seven. Give me the Packers and the points.
Jared Goff UNDER 255.5 passing yards
Jared Goff threw for just 210 yards against the Packers back in their Week 4 matchup and I expect him to struggle through the air again and the Lions will likely stick to the ground. The Packers are 10th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 6.2 yards per throw. Goff can carve up bad secondaries, but that's not what the Packers have. I'll take the UNDER on his passing yards total.
I've been much lower on the Commanders than most people have been all season and I'm not about to change my mind now.
Their defense is atrocious, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent yards per play. Most notably, they're 30th in opponent EPA per dropback and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt. This Cowboys offense is going to be able to carve them up.
I'll take Dallas to cover the double-digit spread on Thanksgiving.
Brian Robinson OVER 41.5 rushing yards
If the Commanders have any hope of beating the Cowboys, they need to run the football early and often in this game. The weakness of the Cowboys' defense is their ability to stop the run, ranking 16th in opponent yards per play and 31st in opponent rush success rate.
He's coming off a strong performance against the Giants where he ran for 73 yards on 17 carries. I think he can carry that performance into this week.
The 49ers are officially back and we can put that midseason slump out of our minds. For what it's worth, I think this is the best team in the NFL. Their offense leads the NFL in EPA/Play and their defense is fifth in opponent EPA/Play. The Cowboys are the only other team that's in the top five in both of those stats.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been trending in the exact opposite direction. They're 25th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play over their last three games at -0.7 and this seems to be a trend for the Seahawks the past couple of years, especially last season when they went 3-5 down the stretch to limp into the playoffs.
Give me the 49ers to roll over the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night.
Zach Charbonnet anytime TD
With Kenneth Walker sidelined, Zach Charbonnet will take over the bulk of the workload on Thursday night. He's averaging an extremely strong 4.9 yards per carry this season, but he's still seeking his first touchdown of the season. I think he finally crosses the goalline on Thursday night.
Parlay odds: +6110
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!