NFL Trap Lines for Week 2 (Don't Bet Blindly In Divisional Rivalries)
Every week, there’s games on the NFL slate that we as bettors consider locks or sure-fire wins. The truth is that no game is a true “lock” and sometimes you can be baited into taking a line that on the surface seems right. However, those games might need a little more consideration before you go and put a bet on them.
Here are three games on the NFL Week 2 slate that you can consider trap games and should watch out for.
NFL Week 2 Trap Games
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
This is the biggest trap game of the week. I understand we’re expecting regression from the Seahawks, especially Geno Smith. I know we expect the 49ers to play better with near perfect conditions on Sunday. However, this is a divisional game in the NFC West. These games tend to be close.
The 49ers haven’t beaten the Seahawks by 10 points in nearly a decade. Yet, according to FanDuel, 59% of the spread handle is on the 49ers. I think the 49ers show their true colors this week, but with Trey Lance still adjusting to real NFL gameplay, I don’t see how the 49ers win this one by 10 or more.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
The Raiders are at home against a Cardinals team that got destroyed by the Chiefs last week. Still, I think 5.5 is far too high for the Raiders. Last season, the Raiders were at least a 5-point favorite once. They lost that game to the Chicago Bears. In the last two seasons, Las Vegas is 8-9 ATS at home.
The Cardinals have one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league and should play better than what they did in Week 1. The Raiders gave up 8.2 yards per pass, which was the third-worst rate in the NFL last week.
As long as Kyler Murray shows a little bit of improvement, the Cardinals will be in this game.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
I understand that this is Aaron Rodgers against the Bears. However, he doesn’t have Davante Adams anymore. This offense looked like a shell of itself in Week 1. They will have to play through Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to move the ball, but that just means a slower game script and less opportunities for points. Around 67% of the spread handle – according to FanDuel – is on the Packers.
This isn’t the same Green Bay team we’ve known for the last decade. This one has a lot of questions that still need answers. I wouldn’t rush out to back Green Bay on the spread in this one.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.