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NFL Unders on Historic Run Not Seen in Three Decades

UNDERs have hit at a rate of over 60% through the first six weeks of the NFL season

By Iain MacMillan

Oct 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns center Nick Harris (53) celebrates after San
Oct 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns center Nick Harris (53) celebrates after San / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
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We're six weeks into the NFL season and we're seeing some historic trends so far.

The most notable one is that UNDERs have been extremely profitable, hitting at a rate not seen through six weeks since 1991!

How many UNDERs have hit in the 2023 NFL season?

The UNDER has gone 56-36-1, which is a rate of 60.9%.

If you blindly bet the UNDER in every game this season, you'd be up close to 20 units on the season.

What team has the best UNDER record in the NFL?

There are 10 teams so far this season who have hit the OVER fewer than two times through the first six weeks. Here is a list of those teams and their UNDER record this season:

  • Saints 6-0
  • Titans 5-1
  • Ravens 5-1
  • Raiders 5-1
  • Vikings 5-1
  • Patriots 5-1
  • Giants 5-1
  • Falcons 5-1
  • Buccaneers 4-1
  • Steelers 4-1

If you want to go back to last season, the UNDER has hit in 12 straight games for the New Orleans Saints. The total is set at 39.5 for their Thursday Night Football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.

Should we blindly bet the UNDER moving forward?

As tempting as it may be to blindly bet on the UNDER for all NFL games moving forward, we should hesitate with that strategy.

Any time there is a trend like this amongst all sports, we see them regress to the mean sooner rather than later and we eventually see the OVER/UNDER record closer to 50/50 by the end of the season. Whether that's a result of variance or sportsbooks adjusting the totals they're setting in these games, it's going to revert to a closer number 50/50 at some point.

With that being said, we don't know when that regression will happen. It could be this week, it could be in a few weeks. So, if you think there's still value on UNDERs in Week 7, then go for it.

If you want to continue betting on UNDERS, or zig when everyone else zags and start to take the OVERs, you should do it at Bet365. For a limited time, new users will receive $150 in bonus bets when they place their first $5 wager. Just click the link below to take advantage of this offer!

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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