NFL Upset Picks for Week 5 (Lions Will Beat Bill Belichick, Bengals Gain Momentum on Sunday Night Football)

Nothing gets the juices flowing like cashing in on an upset pick on the NFL.

We took a bit of a step back last season, but we're still well within the profitable mark heading into Week 5 of the season. We went 2-4 for -1.45 units, with Reed cashing in on the Jets at +150, and Joe cashing in on the Cardinals as slight +105 dogs. That brings our season-long upset record to 10-10 (+7.68 units).

Let's get back on track with some more winners this week!

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 5 of 2022 Season

Browns +130 vs. Chargers

I bet the Chargers in Week 4 as I thought they were undervalued against the only winless team in the NFL in the Texans. After closing -5.5 in game that was a one score game in the fourth quarter against Houston, they are laying a full field goal in Cleveland against a Browns team that can attack their biggest weakness? No thanks.

The Chargers are allowing 5.4 yards per carry and the Browns have one of the best ground games in the league with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt assisting Jacoby Brissett in the backfield. Not to mention, this is a 1 PM EST start for a team traveling across the country. I'll sell high on the Chargers after buying low last week. - Reed Wallach

Lions +120 vs. Packers

Detroit's Achilles' Heel is its defense, so it's fortunate to play a disastrous offense led by a failed coach the Lions are familiar with: Matt Patricia. The Patriots are 23rd in points per game (18.5), at nearly half of what the Lions score per game (a league-best 35.0) and we've got a perfect opportunity to fade New England after taking Green Bay to overtime.

While Bailey Zappe looked impressive filling in for Brian Hoyer and Mac Jones last week, there's no way a Patriots team that doesn't even know which generic Ken doll will play quarterback should be favored over these rising Lions.

With an impressive 9-2 record ATS in its last 11 games as underdogs, Detroit has incredible value in New England. The Patriots are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four contests as a favorite, with two outright losses, and the Lions' fantastic offense will prove too much for the inept Pats attack to keep up. This ain't your parents' Lions and this ain't your parents' Patriots - back Detroit to pick up the road upset. - Joe Summers

The Lions have the best offense in the league (No. 1 in points and yards per game), but are an inexplicable 1-3. They haven’t been able to stop anyone on defense, which is concerning, but not enough to make me not take them this week. New England is going into this game with Bailey Zappe as its starting quarterback. While he looked good against the Packers, how much can we truly trust a rookie quarterback.

Detroit’s offense is explosive and put a lot of pressure on Zappe and the Patriots’ offense to respond. That won’t happen. Take the high-flying offense – especially since its getting a few playmakers back. - Donnavan Smoot

Commanders +125 vs. Titans

I took the Baltimore Ravens at +146 to upset the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, and while that bet looked good for the first three quarters, I ended up with egg on my face as the Ravens blew another late lead at home.

Apparently, I'm a glutton for punishment in Week 5 as well; going to the well to take a Commanders team that has looked atrocious since their Week 1 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here's the thing. The Tennessee Titans, despite their upset win on the road vs. the Indianapolis Colts are not a particularly good team either, and will now travel for a second consecutive week after getting a big division win the Sunday before.

The Commanders' receivers vs. the Titans' secondary offer the biggest mismatch and advantage for Washington. The Titans rank 26th out of 32 in Football Outsiders' Pass DVOA metric, and faces a Commanders' offense that's attempted the third-most passing attempts in the NFL and ranks seventh in passing touchdowns.

Mike Vrabel since taking the Titans job is only 9-13-1 against the spread as a road favorite, and with the line continuing to move towards Tennessee as a public darling this week, I forecast more value on Washington as the week goes on. - Ben Heisler

Bengals +150 vs. Ravens

The Bengals offense had a nightmare start to their season, but they're starting to gain some momentum. They averaged 5.9 yards per play against the Dolphins last week, which was the 11th most in the NFL.

The big reason why I like the Bengals to pull off the upset against their divisional opponent, is that their defense is surprisingly much better than the Ravens.

For example, Baltimore ranks 29th in opponent yards per play, the Bengals rank 11th. If you want to take a look at some advanced analytics, the Bengals are 7th in defensive DVOA, the Ravens are 16th.

Most importantly, the Ravens won't be able to exploit the biggest weakness the Bengals have, their pass protection. Baltimore ranks 29th in the NFL in sack percentage.

I like Cincinnati pull off the upset on Sunday Night Football.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.