NFL Week 1 Trend Says Fade These Heavy Favorites in Opening Odds

It may be early to start thinking about betting on NFL Week 1, but that doesn't mean that we can't find some trends to support some early bets this offseason.

With the NFL schedule release happening last week, we now have spreads for every Week 1 matchup, and there are three that fit a surprising trend since 2005.

Teams that are favored by six or more points in Week 1 are just 40-52-2 against the spread, meaning they have a hard time starting off the season with a big blowout win.

The Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers all fall into this boat in the 2024 season.

Here's a look at the opening odds for these matchups, and a short breakdown of the game:

Patriots vs. Bengals Opening Odds, Spread and Total for Week 1

Spread

• Patriots +9 (-110)
• Bengals -9 (-110)

Moneyline

• Patriots: +320
• Bengals: -410

Total

• 43 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cincinnati is hoping for a bounce-back season after a Joe Burrow injury derailed its playoff chances in 2023.

The Bengals have been great against the spread under Zac Taylor, going 49-36-4, but covering a near double-digit spread is tough to open the season. Not only that, but the Bengals are 1-4 in Week 1 under Taylor with their lone win coming in overtime.

New England is in a rebuild and has a new head coach in Jerod Mayo, but it may be able to hang around based on this trend in Week 1.

Cardinals vs. Bills Opening Odds, Spread and Total for Week 1

Spread

• Cardinals +7 (+100)
• Bills -7 (-120)

Moneyline

• Cardinals: +280
• Bills: -355

Total

• 48 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Buffalo Bills look much different already this offseason as both Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs are no longer with the franchise.

Josh Allen will have his work cut out for him -- even at home -- in Week 1 against an Arizona team that is looking to have a strong 2024 season after it spent most of 2023 without quarterback Kyler Murray.

Buffalo went just 8-11 ATS last season, and one has to wonder if the offense will be as high-powered as we're used to now that it's top receiving targets are changing. Arizona is currently plus money to keep this game within a touchdown.

Jets vs. 49ers Opening Odds, Spread and Total for Week 1

Spread

• Jets +5.5 (-105)
• 49ers -5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Jets: +200
• 49ers: -245

Total

• 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The spread in this game has actually moved in recent days with the Jets falling to 5.5-point underdogs.

New York upset the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 last season, and now it has high expectations with Aaron Rodgers under center (presumably) in 2024.

The San Francisco 49ers went just 3-7 against the spread when favored at home last season, so even though this line has dipped below the six-point threshold, the Jets are still an intriguing bet as an underdog in Week 1.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.