Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with a major AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots hosting the Buffalo Bills as a slight home dog.
Before you consider wagering on tonight's game, as well as any of the other matchups on Sunday or Monday, it's always helpful to catch up on some of the major trends tallied up throughout the week to help provide some additional perspective on how to handicap these matchups.
Remember, trends should be a tool, rather than an end-all-be-all to deciding on who to wager on. Because of this, several trends tend to not be particularly helpful, and may not include relevant data to help make a decision. Therefore, we've helped sort out the noise and delivered what we believe to be some of the most noteworthy and interesting betting trends for every team and game in Week 13 below!
Every one of our team's betting plays, favorite prop bets, anytime touchdown scorer selections and more for Week 13 can be found throughout the week on our NFL Expert Picks and Predictions page:
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1 - THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends and Odds
- The Patriots have a long history of shutting down some of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, but Josh Allen is not one of them. Via John Ewing of BetMGM Sportsbook, Josh Allen is 5-2-1 ATS vs. Belichick over his career, and is 11-3 straight up (SU), and 10-4 ATS in primetime action.
- New England has struggled this season when they haven't been the favorite on the board. They're 2-5 ATS as a dog in their last seven games, including 0-1 as a home underdog in 2022.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4 - EARLY AFTERNOON SLATE
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Betting Trends and Odds
- After starting the season 1-5 ATS, the Commanders have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games, the hottest stretch at the moment in the NFL. They went from the worst team in the league ATS in Week 6, to tied for second-best in a six game
- The Giants are tied for the best ATS record in the league at 8-3-0 with the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals. Daniel Jones, however, despite a 27-21 ATS record, is only 19-29 SU, and 11-14 both SU and ATS at home.
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends and Odds
- When the Jets score at least 18 points, they're undefeated this season at 6-0.
- Also, Zach Wilson might be in trouble with Mike White continuing to perform under center. Via SI's Michael Fabiano, White's 24.8 fantasy points vs. the Bears was more than Wilson's ever scored in an NFL game over his career.
- Via Evan Abrams of TAN, Kirk Cousins in 1 p.m. ET games in his career is 46-34-2 ATS, but just 21-31- ATS in matchups after 4 p.m. ET or later.
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends and Odds
- Mike Vrabel is an ATS covering machine, especially as a big underdog. Via Sharp Football Analysis, Vrabel is 24-15 ATS as an underdog since 2018, winning 22 of them outright, and is 15-7 ATS when Tennessee is an underdog of 4-points or more.
- Also via Sharp Football Analysis, teams with one loss or less after Week 12 have gone 9-23 ATS for the rest of the season since 2014. The Eagles have gone OVER in 10 of their last 11 games at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends and Odds
- The Jaguars are not a team you want to take on the road in the Trevor Lawrence era, at least to this point. Jacksonville is 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine road games, and have lost their last seven games ATS in the month of December.
- Detroit is on a four game ATS winning streak, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after covering the previous game. The favorite has also covered in this matchup head-to-head in five straight games.
- The Lions have only been a home favorite once since 2021, going 0-1-0 ATS. Only Houston has had one game as a home favorite or less since the start of last season.
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends and Odds
- Via our friend Joe Osborne of Vegas Insider, Denver has gone 10-1 to the under in 2022, with their average combined total score of less than 32 points per game!
- The Ravens have blown four games this year when they've lead by 9 or more points, two of which game with less than 6:04 left in the 4th quarter.
Baltimore has also lost six straight games when favored by a field goal or higher, and are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with losing records.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends and Odds
- If the Steelers get on the board first, they win the game. If the other team scores, they lose. According to Rich Hribar, Pittsburgh is 0-7 when they don't score first, and 4-0 when they do.
- After starting the NFL season 6-0 ATS, the Falcons have gone just 1-5 ATS over their last six games. The Falcons are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last six matchups after failing to cover in their previous game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Trends and Odds
Aaron Rodgers, if he plays, has destroyed the Bears, especially at Soldier Field in Chicago. Rodgers is 24-5 SU vs. Chicago, 22-7 ATS, and is 11-3 SU/ATS in the Windy Cindy with seven straight wins and covers (via Evan Abrams).
- While Justin Fields had plenty to do with it when he was on the field (currently questionable with a shoulder injury), the Bears are the top OVER team in the NFL this season, going 8-4 to overs through their first 12 games.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends and Odds
- Over his career, Deshaun Watson is just 9-15-2 ATS as a favorite. He'll make his first start since the beginning of January, 2021 for Cleveland this week against the team that traded him.
- Might this be the time to wager on Houston? Against teams that have a losing record, the Texans have gone 3-1-1 ATS in 2022, compared to 1-5-0 ATS vs. teams above .500.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4 - LATE AFTERNOON SLATE
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Trends and Odds
- If the line stays at -7 or higher, this will be the largest point spread Geno Smith has ever closed at in his career. Lifetime, he's 25-18-2 ATS.
- The Rams ATS +/- is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin, leading the Green Bay Packers by -1.6 points.
Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends and Odds
- Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa are 8-0 SU this season when Tua plays the entire game for the Dolphins.
- The 49ers have not allowed a single point in their last four second halves of football.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends and Odds
- Kansas City has struggled ATS this year at 4-6-1, but on the road vs. good teams is where they've been dominant. KC is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. teams with .500 records or higher.
- The Bengals have gone UNDER in six straight games vs. teams with winning records, and have gone 9-1-1 to the UNDER in their last matchups vs. the AFC.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends and Odds
- L.A. and the Titans have the best ATS record in the NFL this season on the road, going 5-1-0 ATS.
- Since 2019, the Raiders are tied for the most ATS wins in division games with the Dallas Cowboys, going 14-8-0 ATS, covering just under 64% of those games.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4 - SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends and Odds
- Do the Colts rise to the challenge more frequently away from home? Indy is 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road vs. teams above .500, but jsut 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
- When Dak Prescott is a large favorite, more often than not, he gets the job done. Via John Ewing, Prescott is 13-6-1 ATS as a touchdown favorite or more in his career.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 5 - MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends and Odds
- The Saints remain winless ATS on the road this year, going 0-5-0 in their five previous matchups.
- One of these teams is going to have to break this trend! After going 7-3-0 ATS at home last season, the Bucs have yet to cover the spread in their home building this year, going 0-4-1 ATS.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.