NFL Week 16 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Still Time to Back Bears, Select Saints at Key Numbers)

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will be heavily featured with heavy inclement weather expected in Cleveland for their Week 16 matchup.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will be heavily featured with heavy inclement weather expected in Cleveland for their Week 16 matchup. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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It's not often that the best lines available for both teams vanished out of sight in a matter of 2-3 days from opening, but that's the case in this Saturday's featured matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys from AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

At the start of the week, the Cowboys opened up as 1.5-point favorites at home; desperate for a win to keep any sort of NFC East division hopes alive. However, early Monday afternoon, the Cowboys' odds starting soaring up the board, moving past a key number of 3, and reaching as high as a 6.5-point favorite against the best team in football at one point; with rumors of a Jalen Hurts injury looming.

Now, the latest odds for Eagles-Cowboys are right in between, ranging from 4.5-5.5 on the board depending on the book.

Saturday's divisional showdown between these two top NFC East teams wasn't the only matchup to see massive movement following the release of Week 16's opening lines. The Cincinnati Bengals' road matchup in New England already moved past a key number from -3 to a 3.5-point favorite vs. the Patriots. Then, the Pittsburgh Steelers are already up to 3-point favorites at home on Saturday night vs. the Las Vegas Raiders after opening as a near pick 'em at home, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have pillaged any sort of remaining value on the board in their matchup in Arizona; moving the line from -3 to -6.5 vs. the Cardinals.

Despite several NFL matchups already seeing their lines move, here are two games that still offer value on their current positions:

NFL Week 16 Games to Bet Right Now

  • Bears +9.5 (-110) - BetMGM
  • Saints +3 (-107) - PointsBet

Bills at Bears Odds, Prediction and Best Bet

I took the Bills at -8 at the very beginning of the week, but with new details starting to trickle out about Chicago's pending forecast, the Bears could actually be in a much more advantageous spot, especially as a near double digit underdog at home.

Wind conditions at Soldier Field are going to be intense, with gusts reaching upwards of 35 mph in single digit temperatures. Josh Allen, despite massive arm talent and an MVP candidate, is still recovering from an elbow injury, and those kind of temperatures, despite familiarity with snow and wind in Buffalo, won't do him any favors.

Meanwhile, Chicago, despite the second-worst record in the NFL still leads the league in several rushing categories, including No. 1 in rush play percentage, yards per rush, and rushes/rushing yards/game. Buffalo has been better of late vs. the run, but still rank 19th in the NFL in stopping it.

With the total below 40, laying just under 10 points feels like too many in the literal Windy City.

Saints vs. Browns Odds, Prediction and Best Bet

Cleveland's weather conditions by game time may actually be substantially worse than in Chicago.

Forecasts are calling for wind conditions in the 20-30 mph range, with gusts reaching as high as 40 mph. If the current total is to hold, it would be the lowest over/under since 2008.

The Saints don't exactly appear to be a team that embraces cold weather, but they outrank Cleveland in multiple categories over their last three games, including in yards/play (5.5 to 4.8), yards/pass (8.2 to 5.8), and third down conversion percentage (38.9 to 30.2%).

Saints running back Alvin Kamara also comes off one of his better performances of the season for New Orleans, rushing 21 times for 91 yards in a 21-18 victory over Atlanta. The Browns remain a bottom-3 rush defense in the NFL, allowing 5 yards per rush; 29th-worst in the league.

Given the insanely low total, and several books moving the Saints up to +2.5, I'd run to take the +3 while it's still available.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.