NFL Week 16 Lines You Should Underreact To

It's a common theme in sports betting to immediately bet against a team that has an injury, a player put on the covid list, a coaching change, or sometimes just because they're coming off a bad loss.

While everyone else zigs, I like to zag. Instead of overreacting to news or recent results, I've found it much more profitable to underreact, and take the contrarian bet even if it doesn't make a lot of sense.

A perfect example of this was the Week 15 game between the Raiders and Browns. It was announced that Nick Mullens would start at quarterback, and the sportsbooks immediately shifted to the Raiders -3. Then it seemed like everyone was jumping on the Raiders because "how could you bet on a team starting a third string quarterback?". Well, if you underreacted to the news and took the Browns +3 once the line moved, you would've walked away a winner.

In honor of that, let's take a look at the three games on this weekend's NFL slate I think you should underreact to. All odds listed are via WynnBET.

Cardinals -1 vs. Colts

This isn't so much as a reaction to any injuries or COVID news, but this line is an overreaction to recent results.

The Colts are coming off a big win against the Patriots, and there are whispers of people calling them serious dark horse contenders for the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were upset as double-digit favorites to the Lions, and now people are starting to call them frauds.

Let's pump the breaks on both of those takes. The Cardinals have had a rough couple weeks for sure, but sometimes teams just play poorly. They're still an extremely good football team with the talent to go off in any game.

The opposite can be said for the Colts. Yes, they're good, but they still rank only 12th in yards per play and 22nd in opponent yards per play. Let's not starting crowning them just because of a couple of good wins. Underreact and take the Cardinals in this buy low spot.

Buccaneers -10 vs. Panthers

This game is a double-whammy. The Buccaneers just got shutout by the Saints and now they lost Chris Godwin for the year and other key players like Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette for a significant amount of time. No way you can bet on them as double-digit favorites this week, right?

Wrong.

The line has already moved from -11 to -10 as the market begins to overreact to this news. Let's not forget Tom Brady is still their quarterback, and they're going up against one of the worst offenses in the league in Carolina. The Panthers are 31st in yards per play, averaging just 4.7 on the season and 4.3 over their last three games.

Even with the injuries and poor performance last week, you should bet on the Bucs to win and cover on Sunday.

Rams vs. Vikings

The Rams were set as 3-point favorites over the Vikings as of Thursday morning, and I spoke about how I thought Los Angeles was an obvious bet on the latest episode of Bet & Breakfast.

Shortly after we recorded, it was announced that Dalvin Cook was placed on the COVID-19 list. WynnBET has yet to release the updated line, but this could be the perfect underreact spot.

I'm already on the Rams -3, but if the line moves two or three points, the value all of a sudden shifts to the Vikings as everyone rushes to bet on the Rams. Something to keep an eye on as we approach Sunday's slate.