NFL Week 16 Upset Picks (Two AFC North Teams Highlight Top Predictions)

Our editors share their favorite upset picks for Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws a pass.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws a pass. / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
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There are plenty of playoff spots up for grabs as we enter the final weeks of the regular season in the NFL, but that also means some teams can play spoiler with an upset.

My goal this week is to pick a pair of upsets in the NFL, and there are a lot of short spreads to consider when making these picks.

We've struggled a little in these picks this season, so why not close out the season a high note?

2023 Upset Picks Record: 9-22 (-7.76 units)

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Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 16 of 2023 Season

Cleveland Browns (+120) at Houston Texans

This is my favorite upset pick of the week, as the Cleveland Browns have show week in and week out that they can succeed with anyone at quarterback.

The Browns are No. 2 in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and they could wreak havoc on a Houston team that struggled mightily against the New York Jets in Week 14 even with CJ Stroud under center.

I want to sell high on Houston, as the team has gotten some great luck at the end of games to win two of its last three. The Browns' defense should be the difference in this one. Plus, the Texans are just 1-3 ATS as home favorites.

Baltimore Ravens (+195) at San Francisco 49ers

I'm sure there aren't many people who like this pick, but the Baltimore Ravens may be undervalued on the road here.

The winner of this game could decide the league MVP, and I think the Ravens and Lamar Jackson can steal this game in San Fran.

Jackson has been amazing as an underdog in his career, covering the spread in 11 of 13 games. The team was a dog once this season on the road, beating the Cincinnati Bengals outright.

Plus, the Ravens rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season, so they may be able to slow down the 49ers offense just a bit.

If there is one way to beat San Francisco, it's on the ground -- which is Baltimore's speciality. The 49ers are allowing 4.3 yards per carry this season, so don't be shocked if Baltimore looks to slow things down and ground and pound its way to a win.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.