NFL Week 4 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Dolphins-Bengals, Ravens-Bills Could See Lots of Late Action)

Tracking line movements for spreads, moneylines and totals in the NFL can be quite a commitment week-to-week.

Most casual bettors tend to wait until closer to kickoff to place wagers for the day, but knowing where the line first came out, as well as projecting where it could end up makes for a much more sound strategy. This can help us better understand how the sportsbooks are adjusting based on (likely) professional money coming in to start the week.

For Week 4, several matchups have already seen substantial line movement, including the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers moving their consensus opening line of 49 down to 45.5, as well as the New England Patriots going from a 5/5.5-point road underdog in Green Bay to just under 10 ahead of Thursday.

Could we see even more movement take place before kickoff this Thursday night, as well as Sunday?

Here are two matchups where I expect the lines to move considerably as the week progresses.

NFL Week 4 Games to Bet Now

• Dolphins vs. Bengals OVER 46.5
• Ravens vs. Bills | UNDER 51.5

Dolphins vs. Bengals OVER 46.5

Thursday Night Football features a 3-0 team in the Miami Dolphins coming off back-to-back wins vs. two top AFC teams as a 3.5-point road underdog to a Cincinnati Bengals squad that got their lone victory of the year vs. a hapless Jets team.

What gives?

In reality, favorites tend to do very well as a home favorite on Thursday, and the line has actually ticked slightly back in Miami's favor.

However, the total, which opened at 47.5, shot down after Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was likely to be considered out for Week 4. Yet despite his status listed on the injury report as "questionable," the line has now crept back up.

I'm under the belief that Tua will be under center, hence the move at several books up to 47. Once he's ruled active, this line will only keep climbing. Both teams feature some of the best playmakers in the sport at wide receiver, and Miami has been playing to wear out opposing secondaries with their speed down field.

I would bet this number up to 47.5, and may look to middle on my over 46.5 bet if the number keeps climbing since it's already past the key number of 47.

Ravens +3.5 vs. Bills | UNDER 51.5

There are a few different reasons why I like the under between two high-powered offenses in Baltimore this weekend.

The first involves a peculiar stat involving the Buffalo Bills over the past two seasons. When they're on, they don't just beat you, they annihilate you. Via TeamRankings' BetIQ, since the start of 2021, no team has a larger margin-of-victory (+12.3), as well as an ATS (against-the-spread) +/- than the Bills (+5.3).

But if the game is close, it's a completely different story. Buffalo has not won a single one-score game in the last two seasons.

That explains the shift from Ravens +3.5 to +3, but I expect the under to start to shift as well as the week continues.

Last week against Miami, the offense sputtered multiple times down the stretch, with Allen making a terrible throw to pretty much seal the game with an open receiver for six.

There's also the weather. The after-effects from Hurricane Ian will impact the Mid-Atlantic part of the country that day, with rain, heavy humidity, and winds in the 15-17 mph range throughout. While both quarterbacks are dominant with their legs, the Ravens are built to run the football far more often than the Bills.

Even if both teams can still score on the ground, a heavier rushing attack is likely to slow down scoring as time of possession adds up, as well as more time churning off the clock.

51 with the hook won't be here forever. And I made sure to grab it.

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