NFL Week 7 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Money Keeps Moving Towards Jaguars vs. Upstart Giants)

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point favorites at home vs. the New York Giants in Week 7 on the NFL.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point favorites at home vs. the New York Giants in Week 7 on the NFL. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to betting on the NFL, there's a few numbers that all bettors should note as they prepare their wagers.

The first is the original lookahead line from when the books first put the matchup on the board. This can be months in advance, way ahead of any preseason or regular season action. Next is the actual opening line for that specific slate of games, which traditionally gets released on Sunday in the mid-afternoon to early evening for the upcoming week. From there, the numbers fluctuate with the betting market as the sportsbooks try to get as much even action as they can on both sides before the closing number comes in at kickoff.

As bettors look ahead to Week 7 in the NFL, several matchups already moved off the original opening number for the week. Others, despite sharp interest and money, have remained relatively quiet.

Getting closing line value (CLV) is a great way to help determine that your wagers are in line with the right side of the action. Sometimes, your early bet pays off, other times, new information comes out that causes the number to swing in a different direction, and other times you're simply on your own.

Here are three games I believe still offer a value on the board for Week 7, and anticipate the line moving further in that team's direction.

In the interest of transparency, I already bet a few of these games on Sunday, so if the betslips below are reflective of a different number than what is posted in the article, that's the reason why.

3 NFL Week 7 Games to Bet Right Now

Jaguars -3 vs. Giants

This will likely be one of the biggest "Pros vs. Joes" matchup in Week 7, given the surprising nature of the 2-4 Jaguars being a field goal favorite at home vs. a 5-1 Giants squad that continues to show a remarkable ability to fight back and overcome adversity.

While three comebacks of 10 or more-plus points sounds and is impressive, it's by no means sustainable. After all, it's only happened once this century!

The Giants have had several fortunate bounces go their way this year, while the Jaguars' have been on the wrong side of several coin-flip opportunities. There's also the issue of running on Jacksonville, which ranks top 7 in rush DVOA and rushing success rate. Saquon Barkley is having a terrific year, but if the Jags take him away in the running game, I don't like my chances with Daniel Jones winning the game through the air with a wide receiver group that's done almost nothing this season.

Maybe this number stays at 3, but I like this play for Jacksonville much more at just a field goal than I do laying it with the hook.

Falcons +6.5 vs. Bengals

The 6-0 against the spread Falcons continue to impress this year, and each week, the books are making their stance vs. this Atlanta team clear: they simply don't believe in their talent.

For a team that at one point projected to win 4.5 games, it's understandable to see why oddsmakers are reluctant to update their power rankings extensively to reflect Atlanta's ability to hang in close games. At the same time, we're getting enough of a sample from Arthur Smith's team that is indicative of a strong offensive scheme with a running game setting up the pass to really keep opposing defenses off-balance.

This line has already moved to -6 at most books, and a few others in Vegas are already down to -5.5. Atlanta's already been good to bettors this year, so what's another week to let them earn your trust?

Seahawks +7 at Chargers

Similar to Atlanta, the books haven't seemed to want to make significant changes to their ratings for Seattle this year. While the Seahawks have been far worse on the road defensively than at home, I'm anticipating this game feeling more like a Seahawks' home game with their travelling fans against Justin Herbert and company.

Geno Smith trails only Josh Allen in passer rating amongst quarterbacks that have started every game this season, and is two points higher than Patrick Mahomes. He's completing 73.4% of his passes and seems to be thriving in Pete Carroll's and Shane Waldron's system. Meanwhile, the Chargers come into this week bottom 10 in Football Outsider's Run DVOA (22nd). They've won two straight, but they've also come against the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns on the road.

The Chargers also play on a short week, and since Herbert's been on the roster, L.A. is 2-4-0 SU/ATS with a rest disadvantage.