Betsided

NHL Best Bets Today (Expect Goals in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Matchup)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 19, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander (88) celebrates
Nov 19, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander (88) celebrates / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
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It's a new week, so it's time to start fresh with some NHL picks. We're on a bit of a cold run, but we're still profitable for the season so we have plenty of time to bounce back this week.

The good news is we have 10 games to choose from tonight, so there's plenty of options for where we'll place our money.

Let's dive into my three best picks for tonight.

NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date

  • 51-49-1 (+2.21 units)

NHL Best Bets Today (Monday, November 21st)

  • Devils ML (-150) vs. Oilers
  • Islanders/Maple Leafs OVER 6 (-120)
  • Hurricanes ML (-155) vs. Jets

Devils ML vs. Oilers

The Devils have won 12-straight games. Why would we stop betting on them now?

I love calling out fraudulent teams across every league, but I truly don't think the Devils are one of those cases. They're third in CORSI%, second in expected goals for, first in expected goals against, and first in high-danger scoring chances percentage. The advanced analytics back up their record.

Then you have the Oilers, who have struggled in areas this season, especially defensively, where they rank 25th in expected goals against. I'll keep backing the Devils until they show me that I shouldn't.

Islanders/Maple Leafs OVER 6 (-120)

Another thing I'm going to keep betting on is the OVER in Islanders' games. Sportsbooks are still setting their totals as if they are the defensive-minded teams we've come to expect them to be. That hasn't been the case this season They're 12th in expected goals for and 29th in expected goals against.

Their wide open style of play has led to high-scoring affairs.

It also helps that the Maple Leafs shooting percentage has trended in the right direction after a brutal start to their season in that department. They now rank in the top half of the NHL in both their last 10 games and last five games.

Hurricanes -155 vs. Jets

The Hurricanes deserve to be bigger favorites in this game than they are. They lead the NHL in CORSI%, and they're right up there with the Devils at the top of the NHL in most advanced analytics.

Meanwhile, the Jets have struggled this season, ranking 16th in expected goals for and 12th in expected goals against. Nowhere near the numbers that Carolina has been posting.

If it wasn't for their starting goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck, they'd be much further down the standings. But, it's David Rittich who is likely to start for them tonight, so they're going to be in over their heads against Carolina.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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