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NHL Best Bets Today (Fade Matt Murray in Return to Maple Leafs Lineup)

By Iain MacMillan

Sep 28, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Matt Murray (30) returns to his net
Sep 28, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Matt Murray (30) returns to his net / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
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We had our first push of our season on Monday night, going 1-1-1 for a slight profit with the New York Rangers cashing in on the puck line for us at plus-money. Any profit is good, so let's take those results and move on to Tuesday's slate.

There's nine games set to take place in the NHL tonight, with plenty of options for us to choose from.

Here are my three best bets for today's hockey action. For the latest odds for every game on the board, check out our "Best Odds for Every Game" breakdown here.

NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date

  • 48-41-1 (+6.85 units)

NHL Best Bets for Today (Tuesday, November 15)

  • Sabres ML (-120) vs. Canucks
  • Penguins ML (-105) vs. Maple Leafs
  • Wild/Predators UNDER 6 (-110)

Sabres ML vs. Canucks

The Canucks have been one of the more disappointing teams to start the NHL season, and I don't think things will turn around for them tonight. They'll take on the Sabres, who have been a pleasant surprise this season.

Buffalo ranks sixth in the NHL in 5-on-5 CORSI% heading into this game, while the Canucks rank 25th. The biggest weakness for Vancouver has been its defense. It ranks 26th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, so I expect Buffalo's offense to take advantage of them at home tonight as slight favorites.

Penguins ML vs. Maple Leafs

Matt Murray, the Maple Leafs starting goalie, is set to return between the pipes tonight for Toronto. He's only played in one game so far this season, but in that matchup he allowed four goals on only 23 shots. I have no faith that he's going to return in good form, and on top of all that, he has to face his former team.

The Penguins have been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranking third in 5-on-5 expected goals for 60 minutes. They're going to pepper Murray with shots tonight, and I don't think he'll be able to do enough to lead Toronto to the win. I love Pittsburgh as a slight home underdog in this spot.

Wild/Predators UNDER 6

Neither of these teams can put the puck in the net this season. The Predators entering the game ranking 24th in shooting percentage, and the Wild are even worse, coming in at 28th.

The two teams are combining for 5.25 goals per game, well below the total of the game.

I think this game is going to be a defensive battle, so let's bank on defense and hope for the best.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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