NHL Best Bets Today (Fade Overperforming Bruins and Canucks)
It's a new week so it's time to dabble in some NHL bets for Monday, November 6.
Call me crazy, but I'm going to fade a couple of the hottest teams in the NHL and also go against my beloved Maple Leafs. I'll break down each of the three bets I'm placing for tonight in this article.
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NHL Picks for Today
Lightning +130 vs. Maple Leafs
There's no team I know better than my loved (hated) Toronto Maple Leafs and I'm here to tell you that right now, they're the most overrated team in the betting market in professional sports. Not only do they not stack up in the immeasurable metrics like heart and will to win, but their analytics are bad too.
If you look at their 5-on-5 score and venue-adjusted numbers, they're 20th in CORSI%, 24th in expected goal percentage, and 28th in high-danger scoring chance differential. If you don't know what those stats mean, let me just tell you it's bad news. They haven't played well at all this season when it's 5-on-5.
The Lightning outrank them in all three of their areas and I won't hesitate to bet on Tampa Bay as an underdog in Toronto.
Stars -135 vs. Bruins
The Boston Bruins have picked up right where they left off last regular season with the most fraudulent record in the NHL. Yes, they're 9-1-1, but they're also third in PDO, which is a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, something a lot of people view as being a stat that measures "luck".
The Stars, meanwhile, have the underlying numbers to back up their play while also having goaltending to match the Bruins. For example, when it comes to 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes, the Stars have a differential of +0.51 while the Bruins sit at +0.35.
The Stars' special teams could cause them some trouble, but not enough to sway me away from betting on them. Betting on Dallas as a favorite against Boston is so crazy it might just work.
Oilers -114 vs. Canucks
No NHL is more fraudulent at the moment than the Vancouver Canucks. They are scoring 1.28 more goals per 60 minutes than expected while allowing 1.39 fewer goals per 60 minutes than expected. That means their actual goal differential per 60 minutes is +2.35 while their expected goal differential per 60 minutes is -0.32. I did not make a typo there, those numbers are real.
I don't know if I've ever seen a team overperform to the level of the Canucks right now and I promise you this roster isn't talented enough to keep this up. It's time to sell all stock on this Canucks team and bet against them in every game until their record regress to its mean.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!