Betsided

NHL Best Bets Today (Regression is Coming for Winnipeg Jets)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 3, 2022; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets players celebrate their overtime win against the
Nov 3, 2022; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets players celebrate their overtime win against the / James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
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We got back on track on Monday in the best possible way, a 3-0 sweep! I think it's fair to say that a sweep officially ends the short cold streak I was on, so let's keep the momentum going.

We have a huge slate of NHL games to bet on today, 11 in total. So, there's plenty of options to choose from. Let's dive into my three favorite bets for tonight's slate.

NHL Best Bets Record-to-Date

  • 37-34 (+2.18 units)

NHL Best Bets for Today (Tuesday, November 8)

  • Canadiens +140 vs. Red Wings
  • Stars -115 vs. Jets
  • Kings -110 vs. Wild

Canadiens +140 vs. Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings don't deserve being -155 favorites against any team in the NHL, despite sporting a strong record of 6-3-2. Heading into tonight's game, they rank 29th in 5-on-5 CORSI%, well behind the Canadiens who come in at 23rd.

They also rank 28th in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes. Their goaltender, Ville Husso, has been a big reason for their success, but even with that being the case, I think the odds for this game are off. I'll take a shot on the Canadiens as sizable underdogs.

Stars -115 vs. Jets

Tonight's game between the Stars and Jets is a battle between two teams that I think we should start to sell high on. With that being said, I think Winnipeg is the team that's going to regress sooner rather than later.

This a matchup between the team that's leading the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, and a team that's 31st in 5-on-5 shooting percentage. Solely based on their ability to put the puck in the net, Dallas has a significant advantage in this game.

The Jets are allowing 2.02 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, but their expected goals against is 3.01, so Dallas should be well set up to fill the net tonight.

Kings -110 vs. Wild

I think the Wild will start to turn things around at some point this season, but heading into tonight they rank 23rd in shooting percentage and 28th in save percentage. Until they start to improve in those two areas, they're going to be a team to fade.

In most advanced analytics, like CORSI% where they rank 9th and 11th, the two teams are extremely similar. With the Kings being home and being far superior in shooting, I like them as a pick'em tonight.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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