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NHL Fraud Rankings (Rangers are Most Overrated Team in League)

By Iain MacMillan

Apr 7, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) reacts after
Apr 7, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) reacts after / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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We have just a week left of the NHL season so it's time for me to give you my updated fraud rankings.

The last iteration of my fraud rankings was written back in November, and top team on that list, the Vancouver Canucks, won't appear on the updated version below. Their high shooting percentage wasn't sustainable, as I predicted, but I now think they've been playing some of their best hockey of the season.

There's a new No. 1 team on my list and unless you completely skipped past the title of this article, you know who it is.

Before I break down my top five, let me tell you about the latest promotion from FanDuel Sportsbook. For a limited time, new users who sign up for an account will receive $150 in bonus bets if they win their first $5 wager!

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Most Overrated Teams in the NHL

5) Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings are the No. 5 spot on the list due to being on the edge of a playoff spot. If they do make the postseason, they'll be the worst team amongst the 16 Stanley Cup contenders. This season, they rank 29th in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage. Only the Blues, Blackhawks, and Sharks rank worse in that category.

Timely goaltending and scoring has carried them this far, but they have zero chance to keep this going in the playoffs.

4) Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning aren't the Lightning of old who won back-to-back Stanley Cups. They rank just 21st in the league in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage heading into the final week of play and their goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy has had a down year, sporting a save percentage of just .901.

Their elite powerplay still does a ton of damage, but they aren't the team to be intimidated by they once were.

3) Vegas Golden Knights

The defending Stanley Cup champions will likely be returning to the postseason but I don't see a successful defense of their title in their future. They're just 22nd in CORSI% and 14th in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage.

They've also got some subpar goaltending play of late, sporting an .886 team save percentage over their last 25 games. Something that was a strength for them during their Stanley Cup run last season is now a weakness.

Don't let last year's title fool you into think they're a legitimate contender in 2024.

2) Boston Bruins

Last year, the Boston Bruins finished the regular season with the best record in the NHL only to get bounced by the No. 8 seed Florida Panthers in the opening round. One of the signs that they were going to fail to live up to expectations in the postseason was that they led the NHL by a wide margin in the stat called "PDO", which is a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage. Some hockey fans view this stat as a "luck" stat.

Well, they're in a similar spot in 2024. They're now second in the league in PDO this time around, with sharp shooting and strong goaltending leading them to an arguably overinflated record. As a result, expect a similar outcome for the playoffs for the Bruins this time around.

1) New York Rangers

The New York Rangers, who have a strong chance to win the Presidents' Trophy as the team with the best regular season record, is going to implode in the playoffs, I guarantee it.

Despite their strong record, here's where they rank in several key metrics: they're just 19th in the NHL this season in CORSI%, 17th in FENWICK%,

  • CORSI% - 19th
  • FENWICK% - 17th
  • 5-on-5 xGF/60 - 23rd
  • 5-on-5 xGA/60 - 20th
  • 5-on-5 HDCF/60 - 20th
  • 5-on-5 HDCA/60 - 19th
  • Overall expected goal differential - 12th

Those aren't the numbers of a Stanley Cup winning team. They rank outside the top half of the league in virtually every single stat, and even when you adjust to include special teams, they're still outside the top 10 in expected goal differential.

Strong goaltending and sharp shooting can take a team far in the regular season, but you have to be sharp between the blue lines to win several best-of-7 series against elite teams to win it all. Unfortunately, the metrics show the Rangers don't have what it takes to do that.

For that reason, the Rangers are the most overrated and fraudulent team in the NHL.

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