NHL Series Odds and Predictions: Who Will Win the Conference Finals?
The Conference Finals in the NHL Playoffs are set as we're down to four teams left in the race for the Stanley Cup.
The Eastern Conference Finals will feature the top team in each division as the Florida Panthers take on the New York Rangers. The Western Conference Final promises fireworks when the Edmonton Oilers take on the Dallas Stars.
The Stanley Cup odds are as close as you'll see entering the conference finals, but let's dive into both the Eastern Conference Final and the Western Conference Final a little bit closer.
The odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.
NHL Eastern Conference Final Odds and Prediction
- Panthers -146
- Rangers +122
The Panthers are set as favorites to take down the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final and return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second-straight year. At -146 odds, the Panthers have an implied probability of 59.35% of winning the series.
The Rangers finished the regular season with the best record in the NHL, but there are some reasons to think they're the worst of the four teams remaining. For example, they finished the season ranking 12th in the NHL in both expected goals percentage and CORSI%. The Panthers ranked third and second in those two respective metrics.
The path to victory for the Rangers lies in their goaltending. Igor Shesterkin has been fantastic in the postseason, sporting a save percentage of .923 through their first 10 games. Meanwhile, Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't had his best stuff. He has a save percentage of .902 in the postseason which means he needs to step up if Florida wants to get past New York.
The Rangers have also been the better shooting team both in the regular season and in the playoffs, ranking well ahead of the Panthers in shooting percentage. In the postseason, they've scored on 13.41% of their shots on goal, the best mark amongst all playoff teams.
So, which team do you want to back? The one with better advanced metrics and play between the blue lines, or the team who does the simple things well, like shooting and goaltending?
I'm going to give the Rangers the slight edge. A great goaltender can drag a team to a Stanley Cup and the fact they have home-ice advantage worth noting. I'll back them as underdogs against the Panthers.
Pick: Rangers (+122) to win in seven games
NHL Western Conference Final Odds and Prediction
- Stars -120
- Oilers +100
The Stars and Oilers will face-off in what's projected to be a near coin flip of a series.
The Oilers have the most star power of any team left in the playoffs with Connor McDavid seeking his first Stanley Cup. They were also one of the best statistical teams during the regular season, leading the NHL in expected goals percentage.
With that being said, Edmonton has one glaring weakness that has cost them deep Stanley Cup runs in the past and a similar fate could befall them this year. They have yet to find a goaltender that can step up for them in the postseason and Stuart Skinner has managed to do that this year. He has an .881 save percentage in these playoffs and he almost cost them their series against the Canucks.
Teams have won with average goaltending in the past, like the Avalanche when they won the Cup in 2022, but teams have to be extremely dominant and deep to do that. Are the Oilers at that level? Maybe, but a series against an extremely solid Stars team is a huge concern.
The Stars rank just behind the Oilers in many metrics, including fourth in expected goals percentage, but Dallas has the far superior goaltender. Jake oettinger has a .918 save percentage in these playoffs and he stepped up in a big way against the Avalanche after a subpar performance in the opening round against the Golden Knights.
Ultimately, goaltending could be the deciding factor in both series. Just like the Eastern Conference Final, I'll back the team with that has home-ice advantage and a better goalie.
Pick: Stars (-120) win in six games
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.