NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Power Rankings Based on Betting Odds

The NHL Playoffs are here, so it's time to place your bets to win the Stanley Cup.

The Colorado Avalanche are set as favorites to win it all at +325 at WynnBET, does that automatically make them the team to bet on? I say no.

On last week's episode of the Bacon Bets Podcast, I ranked all 16 playoff teams in order of their betting value to win the Stanley Cup. Remember, I'm not ranking them in terms of skill, talent, or chance of winning. I'm simply ranking them on betting value.

If you come to me and ask "Iain, who should I bet on to win the cup?", this below rankings are the teams listed in order from the last team I'd recommend betting on, to the top team I'd recommend betting on.

Who survives and advances out of the first round of this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs? Here are our betting picks below!

NHL Playoff Betting Power Rankings

16) Colorado Avalanche +350

You're probably surprised to see that I'm ranking the Avalanche as the last team in my betting value power rankings to win the Cup, but let's take a quick look at where they rank in a few key stats.

• 7th in CORSI%
• 10th in expected goals per 60 minutes
• 12th in expected goals against per 60 minutes
• 14th in high danger scoring chances
• 21st in high danger scoring chances against
• 7th in both shooting percentage
• 6th in save percentage

Those aren't the stat's of a tea, that deserves to be +325 favorite to win the Cup. Are they talented enough to do it? Absolutely. Will I look like an idiot when they win it all? Likely. With that being said, I don't think they're the best team in the Western Conference and I have them losing in the second round to the winner of the Wild vs. Blues series.

There's more betting value on virtually every other team in the playoffs.

15) Nashville Predators +7500

The Predators would be a lot more tempting if goaltender Juuse Saros was still healthy, but a late-season injury has doomed any chance of the Predators making a postseason run. Neither backup goaltender has a save percentage above .900 this year, so it's likely going to be a quick first round exit for Nashville.

14) St. Louis Blues +2500

The St. Louis Blues struggle from an advanced analytics standpoint, but they are able to make up for a lot of that with their shooting. They rank first in shooting percentage heading into the postseason, but is that sustainable in best-of-seven series' against the best teams in the league? I don't think so.

Not to mention, they lost home-ice advantage against an extremely tough Wild team. I'd be surprised if they get out of the first round.

13) Toronto Maple Leafs +1000

When playoffs start, I’ll be in full delusional fan mode, so while I still have a clear head, let me tell you the truth. The Maple Leafs are. not going to win the Stanley Cup and they present no betting value at their current price.

On top of their curse, they're 27th in save percentage since the start of the new year. I can't trust a team in the postseason who has had weak goaltending for a handful of months. Finally, the Maple Leafs are generally overvalued from a betting standpoint due to their popularity.

I can't recommend betting on Toronto here at 10/1.

12) Dallas Stars +5000

The Dallas Stars have a goal differential of -8 this season, the only playoff team to be in the negative in that statistic. Sure, they have temping long odds to win it all, but the Western Conference is an extremely top-heavy conference this year, and now they have to take on the team I believe to be the best in the West in the Flames. The Stars aren't getting it done.

I don’t have faith in either of the Western Conference wild card teams. Only reason why Preds are higher is assuming they take on the Flames in the first round instead of the Avalanche. If they do and they manage to get past the Flames, they’ll have an easier second round series than the Stars would against the Wild or Blues.

11) Washington Capitals +4000

This is a top-heavy postseason. I don’t have any faith in any of the wild card teams outside of the Bruins. In order for a wild card team to go on a run, they need good goaltending and the Capitals rank 23rd in save percentage dating back to January 1.

On top of that, they’ll have the Panthers in the first round and I don’t think they match up well against them. The Eastern Conference is too good. They’d have to pull off three-straight massive upsets to get to the Stanley Cup Final.

10) Florida Panthers +450

Neither conference leader has value at their current price. Remember, we’re talking betting value.

Panthers games will be exciting as hell to watch in the playoffs, but that wide open style of play generally doesn’t do well in the postseason. You leave yourself too susceptible on the defensive end, and if the opposing goalie has a good game, you’re toast.

Also, if they get past the first round, they’ll face the winner of the Maple Leafs and the Lightning. Not an easy path at all.

9) Boston Bruins +2000

While I do like them far better than the other three wild card teams, they have too many holes to completely trust them against the top teams in the league.

They’re 26th in shooting percentage since Jan. 1st which is my main concern about them. BUT, they’re arguably the best defensive team in the NHL. So if you think defense wins championships, Boston could go on a run.

They're also on the easier side of the Eastern Conference bracket, but will have a tough first round matchup against the Hurricanes.

8) New York Rangers +1500

I've said the same thing about them all season, but some of you are probably surprised that I have them ranked this high considering how much I’ve crapped on them.

They’ve actually played much better the past couple of months then they did at the start of the season.

Still though, since Jan. 1, they're 19th in CORSI%, and18th in expected goals for.

If Igor Shesterkin stands on his head, this could be the annual team where a goalie leads them on a deep run. I won't be betting on them personally, but if you do, I wouldn't blame you.

7) Pittsburgh Penguins +2000

I'm mainly putting them above the Rangers because they have a better price at 20/1, especially considering their series is set as a pick'em at at WynnBET.

Experience is key for the Penguins. They're loaded with guys who know how to get it done. They rank just inside the top 10 in most advanced analytics, and fourth in save percentage, so they’ve been getting solid goaltending which we know is important in the postseason.

6) Tampa Bay Lightning +900

It's tough to argue against the back-to-back defending champs, but they have a tough path to get out of the Atlantic side of the bracket, and they aren’t the team they were the past two years.

Since Jan. 1, they're 11th in CORSI percentage, ninth in expected goals for, and sixth in expected goals against. 

Still, very solid numbers, so I have them ranked at sixth. But the path will be tough for them and I just don’t think they are as strong as they were the last two years which makes me not love them at +900.

5) Minnesota Wild +1800

I actually think the Wild beat the Avalanche in the second round, so I kind of like the Wild at +1800. I think the Flames are the best team in the West, but if you don't bet on them, consider the Wild.

Also, If you like how good of a shooting team the Blues are, wager on the Wild instead. They're second in shooting percentage next to the Blues, but much better advanced analytics. Allowing the fewest high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes since January as well, so a they're very good defensive team.

4) Calgary Flames +700

I think the Flames are the best team in the Western Conference, so despite them being third on the odds list, I think they still have value. They’re also the only team I could see beating whatever team comes from the East.

Since Jan. 1:

• 3rd in CORSI%
• 2nd in expected goals per 60 minutes
• 2nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes
• 9th in shooting percentage
• 9th in shooting percentage
• 5th in save percentage

Those right there are the numbers of a Stanley Cup winning team. Not only that, but I think they have an easier path to the finals then the Central Division. I bet on them in January at 10/1 to win the west, so im heavily invested in them.

3) Edmonton Oilers +2000

My next two teams are going to sound contradictory, but remember, we’re talking BETTING VALUE.

I still think the Flames win this side of the bracket, but in theory, the Oilers have a pretty easy matchup in the Kings in the first round. Then, they'd take on their rival Flames in the second round, and who knows what would happen there.

They're seventh in CORSI percentage, sixth in expected goals per 60 minutes, and a nice surprise of 14th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. Not great, but the past few years they've ranked near the bottom of that statistic.

Once again, these rankings are betting value. When I see the Wild at 18/1, Blues at 20/1, even in the east teams like the Bruins at 20/1, Rangers at 15/1, and Penguins at 20/1. I think the Oilers hold some value compared to those teams at their current price.

2) Los Angeles Kings +5000

Surprising pick to many of you, but to those of you who followed my NHL picks this season, it shouldn’t be come as a shock.

Lowest odds of all playoff teams outside the Predators, but the Kings are actually a fantastic team in advanced analytics. I can't help but get seduced by these numbers!

Since Jan. 1:

• 4th in CORSI percentage
• 4th in expected goals per 60 minutes
• 7th in expected goals against per 60 minutes
• 5th in high danger scoring chances
• 14th in high danger scoring chances against

But, the issue is they’re 29th in shooting percentage and 24th in save percentage.

The underlying stats say that they’re actually a very good team. If they can get some hot goaltending and start converting on their shots, they are a sneaky play at 50/1.

Carolina Hurricanes +900

The Carolina Hurricanes are the best and most complete team in the NHL, are on the easier side of the bracket in the Eastern Conference, but yet are fourth on the odds list to win it all. If you bet on one team, make it the Carolina Hurricanes.

Since Jan. 1:

• 1st in CORSI%
• 3rd in expected goals per 60 minutes
• 4th in expected goals against per 60 minutes
• 2nd in high danger scoring chances

Their shooting has been a bit down as of late, 19th in shooting percentage, but outside of that, I think they’re the team to beat and the bet to make heading into the playoffs.